Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.
Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - downward.
The EUR/USD currency pair continued its steady downward movement on Friday, January 15. Several macroeconomic reports in the US on this day did not have any impact on the movement of the pair. All news of a political nature is ignored. And nothing else interesting is happening now either in the United States or in the European Union. Somehow, quite imperceptibly, the "coronavirus" began to play a familiar role in people's lives. No one is already hysterical about the new "lockdown", which is introduced if necessary, or about the tightening of quarantine. During the year of the pandemic, people got used to masks, got used to social distancing, got used to the "coronavirus" itself and the fact that you can die from it. Thus, the newspapers are no longer full of headlines about new anti-records of morbidity (although in the United States, this number consistently exceeds 200,000 per day), and the market does not respond at all to the epidemiological situation in a particular country. Moreover, the markets are not responding to anything at all right now. All this simultaneously facilitates and complicates the process of analysis and trading in the foreign exchange market. It makes it easier – because traders now need to analyze only technical factors. Complicates it – because it is never clear how it relates to the next important news, report or whole topic.
The last days of Donald Trump in the White House are turning out to be somewhat gloomy. More people and supporters are turning away from him, and according to polls, after the events of January 6, many Americans want Trump to never get into big politics again. Also, according to some news agencies, Trump quarreled with his personal lawyer Rudolph Giuliani and refused to pay his fees. Recall that it was Giuliani who said a few weeks ago that the election results would be reviewed, and America would get its true and legitimate president. As you can see, America got it, but it's not Trump. It is also reported that many well-known lawyers refused to represent Trump's interests in the defense against a second impeachment, as well as in all legal proceedings that Trump will be subjected to after he ceases to be president. It is reported that the Democrats are preparing a whole pile of lawsuits in various courts in order to once and for all remove Trump from big politics. Many American news agencies are already writing that Donald Trump's career is buried. Trump's approval rating dropped to 29%. Trump himself rejected the idea of resigning voluntarily in order to avoid impeachment in the future.
Meanwhile, Trump's personal lawyer, Rudolph Giuliani, has not yet worked out all the checks, because he said that he will still represent Trump's interests in court. Giuliani also attacked the Democrats, who "put pressure on Trump because he expresses his opinion". According to Giuliani, "Democrats have said that whenever Trump talks about election fraud, he incites violence." Giuliani also does not give up hope to prove the fact of fraud in the elections, which will deprive the Democrats of the main trump card.
Meanwhile, CNN has compiled a list of Donald Trump's most famous lies. Among all the statements, there are quite harmless ones, such as the statement about the absence of rain at the inauguration in 2016, although it actually rained, ending with statements about the control of the "coronavirus". Trump has also been repeatedly accused of "inaccurate" statements regarding trade with China, deliberately exaggerating the problem, and lying about the approval of the veterans' assistance program, which was approved by Barack Obama. CNN's "most brazen" lie highlights a whole block that concerns almost every Trump campaign speech in which he spoke about Joe Biden. Trump blamed Biden for everything, without ever providing a single proof of his words.
Meanwhile, in Washington, everyone is preparing for the inauguration of Joe Biden. National Guard detachments are being transferred to the capital, an emergency regime has already been introduced by Donald Trump, and mass demonstrations and protests by supporters of the current president are expected. The FBI said that it is serious to monitor various kinds of "dangerous chats", which contain calls for violence, rallies, protests, especially armed ones. Some states have declared a state of emergency. In downtown Washington, there are almost no people on the streets, the Capitol is fenced with barbed wire.
This is America right now. In the summer and fall of last year, we repeatedly wrote about the political crisis that engulfed the country thanks to the same Donald Trump. It is difficult to say whether there is a new crisis in the country or a continuation of the old one? Either way, it's best to get this over with as quickly as possible. The US dollar has been hit very hard since March last year. The US currency has been recovering for the last week, however, it is difficult to say whether this process will be long. One good thing is that the US dollar does not react to politics, otherwise it could already be caught near the level of 1.2500. As for the economy, the US still looks much stronger than the European one, despite the failed nonfarm Payrolls and the number of applications for unemployment benefits that has begun to grow. The most important thing is that the United States did without a total "lockdown" this winter. Therefore, the economy continued to work and recover. The European economy was "closed" for another month in November, so it will suffer losses in the fourth quarter of 2020. It is difficult to say how important this information is at this time to market participants. In the past few months, traders have not paid any attention to the "foundation" and "macroeconomics" at all. When this reluctance to pay attention will end is unknown. It remains only to trade according to the factors that matter. That is, technical. "Technique" also speaks at this time of a continuing downward movement. Thus, as long as the price continues to be located below the moving average line, it is recommended to continue to consider sell orders.
The volatility of the eurodollar currency pair as of January 18 is 79 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.2000 and 1.2158. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top can signal a round of upward correction.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.2085
S2 – 1.1963
S3 – 1.1841
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.2207
R2 – 1.2329
R3 – 1.2451
The EUR/USD pair continues its downward movement. Thus, today it is recommended to stay in short positions with targets of 1.2000 and 1.1963 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns up. It is recommended to consider buy orders if the pair is fixed back above the moving average with a target of 1.2329.
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