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11.06.202113:57 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: plan for the US session on June 11 (analysis of morning trades)

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need to:

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.2177 and recommended that you decide on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened. First, the bulls achieved a false breakout at the level of 1.2177, which led to forming a signal to open long positions. However, we did not see the continuation of the upward trend. After some time, a second test occurs, and the range of 1.2177 is already broken. But for opening short positions, the condition for updating this level from the bottom up did not take place, so I missed the entry point.

Exchange Rates 11.06.2021 analysis

In the second half of the day, the technical picture has changed, and now the key task of buyers will be to protect yesterday's support of 1.2144. In the scenario of a decline in the pair to this level, it is best to wait for the formation of a false breakdown and only then open long positions to recover to the resistance of 1.2190. A breakthrough in this area will occur only in weak data on the consumer sentiment index and inflation expectations from the University of Michigan. Therefore, before buying, it is best to wait for a test of the level of 1.2190 from top to bottom on the volume, which will allow you to form a new entry point into long positions in the continuation of the upward trend in the expectation of a maximum of 1.2222. The next target will be the level of 1.2253, where I recommend fixing the profit. Finally, in the scenario of no bull activity in the area of 1.2144, short positions can be safely opened from a significant low in the area of 1.2105 in the expectation of an upward correction of 15-20 points within the day.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to:

During the US session, the bears will be set to break through yesterday's support of 1.2144. A test of this level from the bottom up and good data on the US economy will again allow sellers to "pull the blanket" to their side, which will quickly dump EUR/USD in the support area of 1.2105, where I recommend fixing the profits. It is unlikely to go beyond this level. If the bulls are active again in the second half of the day, and the pair returns to the resistance area of 1.2190, in this case, it is best to open short positions only after the formation of a false breakdown, which forms a sell signal for the euro. In the scenario of a lack of sellers' activity and very weak data, I recommend postponing sales immediately for a rebound from the resistance of 1.2222 to expect a downward correction of 15-20 points within the day.

Exchange Rates 11.06.2021 analysis

Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for June 1 shows an increase in long positions and a reduction in short ones, indicating an increase in demand for the European currency in the last month of the second quarter. It is expected that in the summer, the European economy will show a particularly strong recovery, which will lead to new growth of the European currency in the area of annual highs. The lifting of several quarantine restrictions, which are still in effect in European countries, will lead to an even greater economic recovery. According to the latest data, it will give it a boost through increased retail sales and inflation, which has seriously increased in the euro area. Data on activity in the manufacturing sector and the service sector also continue to please economists, which once again indicates a serious pace of recovery. Traders now perceive any strong movements of the EUR/USD pair downwards as an excellent opportunity to gain long positions in continuing the bull market. The dollar can only hope that the Federal Reserve System will seriously talk about reducing the volume of bond purchases in the summer. However, we will not know about this until mid-June. The COT report shows that long non-profit positions jumped from the level of 236,103 to 237,360, while short non-profit positions fell from the level of 132,103 to 128,038. It indicates an influx of new buyers in the expectation of continued growth of the euro and a wait-and-see attitude on the part of sellers.

Given that the pair had seriously recovered last Friday, this may indicate the formation of a new upward trend and the return of EUR/USD to local highs. It is where the bulls will continue to accumulate long positions with the expectation of going beyond them. It indicates a possible breakdown of the highs of last month in the near future and the continuation of the euro's growth. The total non-commercial net position increased from 104,000 to 109,322. The weekly closing price also increased from 1.22142 to 1.22326.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is again below 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates a return of pressure on the European currency.

Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

If the pair grows, the upper limit of the indicator around 1.2200 will act as a resistance.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet specific requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2021
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