01.09.202109:53 Forex Analysis & Reviews: US stock market adds 82% since last March

Exchange Rates 01.09.2021 analysis

S&P 500

The US market kicked off the new month at year highs.

On Tuesday, the US indices closed the previous month with slight losses: the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.1%, S&P 500 fell by 0.13%, and the NASDAQ Composite lost 0.04%.

Asian markets rose on the last day of August: the indices of China and Japan added 1.3%.

China: The Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index showed a decline in activity. The indicator fell to 49.2 in August.

Commodity market. Brent crude is consolidating in the range of $72-73, slightly below the August highs of $74.

COVID in the world. The third wave of the coronavirus is just below its highs. Yesterday, the number of cases increased by 608 K globally. The US reported an increase in new infections by 156 K. Britain is ranked third in the world in terms of new cases. Coronavirus cases in the UK rose to 32 K.

S&P 500: 4522. Trading range: 4,480-4,540. August marked the seventh consecutive month of continuous growth in the S&P 500 index. In August, the main index of the US market surged by 115 points, or almost 3%, to 4515 from 4400. Growth in the US market accelerated last spring, following a collapse during the first wave of the coronavirus. Since the end of March last year, the S&P 500 index has risen by a whopping 2,035 points, or 82%, to 4,515 from 2,480. Considering the record prolonged bullish cycle of the US market initiated in March 2009, the S&P 500 index has skyrocketed by 472% to 4,522 from 672. On the one hand, this indicates the strong state of the US market and the country's economy, fueled by the Fed's aggressive policy. On the other hand, a big correction is long overdue.

Today's macroeconomic calendar includes important releases from the United States for August. Thus, the ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to decrease to 58 compared to 59.5 in July. As for the ADP National Employment Report, nonfarm payrolls are anticipated to increase by 660 K against 330 K in July.

USDX: 92.70. Trading range: 92.20–93.00. Market participants are awaiting the Fed's monetary policy decisions. The dynamics of the US dollar index may be affected by a correction in the US market, of course, if it takes place.

USD/CAD: 1.2610. Trading range: 1.2550-1.2650. The pair is trading under growing pressure from high oil prices. In case of a new rise in oil prices, the pair may fall below the level of 1.2500.

Conclusion. Market participants are awaiting statistics from the United States.

*Analiza tržišta koja se ovde nalazi namenjena je boljem razumevanju tržišta i ne pruža instrukcije za vršenje trgovanja.

Jozef Kovach,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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