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17.08.2022: Investors digest US retail sales report and FOMC meeting minutes. (S&P, USD, CAD, BTC)

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Hi everyone! You are watching a recap of the American session. Trading on Wall Street is going to be quite buoyant today. Traders are digesting fresh macro stats. As usual, let's start with the results of the previous trading day. On Tuesday, US benchmark stock indexes were quite volatile and closed mixed.
At the close of the session, the Dow added 0.71%, logging the best result among other indices. The NASDAQ decreased by 0.19%, while the S&P 500 rose by exactly the same amount - 0.19%. It reached 4,305. In Wednesday's premarket, all stock indices were in the red zone. They lost approximately 0.53 - 0.81%. The S&P 500 was moving in the range of 4,180 – 4,320.
Upbeat earnings reports of top retailers - Home Depot and Walmart - facilitated a sharp increase in the stock market on Tuesday. Home Depot reported comparable sales growth of 5.8% in the second quarter, topping analyst expectations for a rise of 4.9% The net profit surged to $5.17 billion, up from $4.81 billion.
Walmart's total revenue jumped by 8.4% to $152.86 billion in the second quarter versus the forecast reading of $150.81 billion. Sales at Walmart's US stores soared by 6.5%, beating its prior forecast for a 6% gain. The Dow Jones moved up significantly amid such positive quarterly results. However, today, optimism is waning due to fresh negative earnings reports from retailers.
Target reported a 90% drop in quarterly profit on Wednesday. The company also unveiled quarterly earnings of $183 million, or 39 cents per share, missing estimates of 72 cents. Despite the big discounts, inventories increased by 1.6% to $15.3 billion at the end of the quarter compared to the previous period. Chief Executive Brian Cornell said that "the magnitude of the disconnect between inventory and sales growth is something I haven't seen in a really long time, maybe ever."
Target shares dropped by 3% in pre-market trading following this news. As for the shares of top companies with the largest capitalization like Apple, Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, they were also in negative territory in today's premarket trading. They lost from -0.19 to 1.25%.
Apart from mixed earnings reports, market sentiment turned sour due to fresh macro stats. US housing starts fell in July compared to the previous month, undershooting analysts' expectations. Industrial production increased, while the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index declined.
Today, traders are assessing US retail sales data.
Retail sales unexpectedly stalled in July. It came as an unpleasant surprise to analysts who had expected a 0.1% rise amid a recent decline in inflation.
Online retail sales jumped by 2.7% largely thanks to the Amazon Prime Day event on July 12 and 13. Increases were recorded for building material & garden equipment stores (1.5%), electronics and household appliance stores (0.4%), health & personal care stores (0.4%), and grocery stores (0.2%).
However, sales at gasoline stations tumbled by 1.8% as the gasoline price index dropped by 7.7%. Motor vehicle & parts dealers, clothing & accessories stores, and department stores also unveiled losses. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, the core retail sales grew by 0.8% versus 0.7%.
The retail sales report is not the main market driver today. After the opening of the session, the FOMC meeting minutes for July are due.
The US dollar index is gaining momentum ahead of the Fed’s minutes. However, its growth is quite modest. It has only added 0.23. At the time of making the video, it was trading at a high of 106.7. According to our forecast, it is likely to move in the range of 106.3 - 107.1.
The greenback also asserted strength amid a decline of its main rivals. The pound sterling was rather volatile today. At first, it rose by 0.14% against the US dollar. A bit later, it declined by 0.26%. Such sharp fluctuations occurred because of downbeat US CPI data. Inflation soared to 10.1%, the highest level in recent decades, exceeding market expectations of 9.8%. As the Bank of England sees inflation above 13%, it is likely to maintain aggressive tightening.

00:00 Introduction
00:25 S&P500
01:04 Situation on the US stock market
02:03 US stock market
03:33 Retail sales volume
04:55 USDX
05:18 Dollar and other currencies
06:57 USD/USD
07:30 Bank of Canada
08:23 Situation on the energy market
09:17 BTC/USD
10:58 Results

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