4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 88p - 108p - 97p - 41p - 37p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 74p (77p).

The EUR/USD pair held the third trading day of the week in moderate trading with minimal volatility, although today there were already two events that could cause a strong appreciation of one or another currency. First, Mario Draghi, head of the ECB, said that the countries of Central and Eastern Europe are very vulnerable in a global trade war (hint of a trade war with the United States), as they are very dependent on foreign trade and the automotive industry. By and large, Draghi openly declared that the European Union was wary of a trade war with the United States. It is good that Donald Trump's attention is now fully occupied by China and so the European Union is able to trade with America without additional duties. See you again. This speech could have seen a strengthening of the US dollar. Furthermore, the US inflation report for May was published, and this report became the cherry on the cake of failed macroeconomic statistics for the last two weeks. It turned out that the consumer price index dropped to 1.8% y/y, with a forecast of 1.9% and a previous value of 2.0%. On this information, we could already see another strengthening of the European currency. However, instead, the euro/dollar pair is still near local highs and shows no concern. It seems that these two events simply offset each other. Thus, the upward mood among traders remains, and the pair may well continue the upward movement, but from a fundamental point of view, the situation is very subtle, as reports from the US upset the bears, but the bulls have no particular reason for joy. The Bollinger Bands have narrowed to the lowest, which may signal the end of an upward trend.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair is trying to resume an upward trend. Thus, now it is still recommended to trade for an increase with the target resistance level of 1,1400, but after the reversal of the MACD indicator upwards.

The euro/dollar pair can be sold in small lots if the bears manage to gain a foothold below the critical line, with the first targets of 1.1243 and 1.1212. In this case, the initiative for the pair will return to the bears.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.