The Brexit vote took place ... What's next? - Comprehensive analysis of movement options - #USDX, EUR / USD, GBP / USD and USD / JPY (H4) from October 24, 2019.
Minuette (H4 time frame)
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US dollar Index
Starting from October 24, 2019, the movement of the dollar index #USDX will continue in the equilibrium zone (98.05 - 97.70 - 97.30) of the Minuette operational scale fork. The details are shown in the graph.
Consecutive breakdown of support levels :
- 97.30(lower boundary of the ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork);
- 97.20 (start line SSL of the Minuette operational scale fork);
- 97.15 (local minimum);
- 97.00 (control line LTL Minuette);
will determine the continuation of the downward movement of the dollar index to the warning lines - LWL38.2 (96.70) and LWL61.8 (96.35) - of the Minuette operational scale fork.
In the event of breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL38.2 (resistance level of 98.05) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork, the development of the movement #USDX will become relevant to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (98.25 - 98.60 - 98.95) of the Minuette operational scale fork and 1/2 Median Line channel Minuette (98.85 - 99.10 - 99.30).
The details of the #USDX movement are presented in the chart.
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Euro vs US dollar
The movement of the single European currency EUR / USD from October 24, 2019 will also be determined by the development and direction of the breakdown of the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1.1180 - 1.1125 - 1.1075) of the Minuette operational scale fork. The markup of the development of the above levels is shown in the animated chart.
Combined breakdown of resistance levels :
- 1.1180 (the upper boundary of ISL61.8 is the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork);
- 1.1188 (control line UTL Minuette operational scale fork);
will make it possible to continue the development of the upward movement of the single European currency towards the goals - warning line UWL38.2 Minuette (1.1235) - local maximum 1.1250 - warning line UWL61.8 Minuette (1.1275).
The breakdown of the lower boundary ISL38.2 (support level of 1.1075) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork - continuation of the downward movement of EUR / USD to the targets - the final Schiff Line Minuette (1.1055) - equilibrium zone (1.1030 - 1.0990 - 1.0945) of the Minuette operational scale fork.
The details of the movement of EUR / USD are shown in the chart.
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Great Britain pound vs US dollar
Similarly to other currencies, Her Majesty's GBP / USD currency will begin to develop movement from October 24, 2019 depending on the development and the breakdown direction of the range :
- resistance level of 1.2935 (final Schiff Line of the Minuette operational scale fork);
- support level of 1.2840 (reaction line RL23.6 of the Minuette operational scale fork).
The breakdown of the final Schiff Line Minuette (resistance level of 1.2935) - the option of resuming the upward movement of GBP / USD whose goals will be - the upper boundary of ISL61.8 (1.3012 - local maximum) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork - control line UTL Minuette (1.3060) - warning lines - UWL38.2 (1.3170) and UWL61.8 (1.3265) - Minuette operational scale fork.
Combined breakdown of support levels :
- 1.2840 (reaction line RL23.6 of the Minuette operational scale fork);
- 1.2820 (Median Line of the Minuette operational scale fork).
A variant of the development of the downward movement of Her Majesty's currency to the boundaries of the equilibrium zone (1.2705 - 1.2610 - 1.2520) of the Minuette operational scale fork.
The details of the GBP / USD movement can be seen in the chart.
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US dollar vs Japanese yen
As per the currency of the "country of the rising sun" USD / JPY from October 24, 2019, it will begin to develop its movement depending on the direction of the breakdown of the range :
- resistance level of 108.55 (starting line SSL of the Minuette operational scale fork);
- support level 108.45 (upper boundary of the ISL61.8 equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork).
The breakdown of the upper boundary of ISL61.8 (support level of 108.45) of the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork will determine the movement of the currency of the "country of the rising sun" to the boundaries of the 1/2 Median Line channel of Minuette (108.30 - 108.10 - 108.10) with the prospect of reaching the lower boundary of ISL 38.2 (107.45) the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork and the upper boundary of ISL 38.2 (107.10) the equilibrium zone of the Minuette operational scale fork.
On the contrary, the breakdown of the SSL start line (resistance level of 108.55) of the Minuette operational scale fork will make the development of the upward movement of USD / JPY to the targets relevant - local maximum 108.95- control line UTL Minuette (109.15) - warning line UWL61.8 Minuette (109.50).
We look at the details of the USD / JPY movement in the chart.
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The review is made without taking into account the news background. Thus, the opening of trading sessions of major financial centers does not serve as a guide to action (placing orders "sell" or "buy").
The formula for calculating the dollar index :
USDX = 50.14348112 * USDEUR0.576 * USDJPY0.136 * USDGBP0.119 * USDCAD0.091 * USDSEK0.042 * USDCHF0.036.
where power factors correspond to the weights of the currencies in the basket:
Euro - 57.6% ;
Yen - 13.6% ;
Pound Sterling - 11.9% ;
Canadian dollar - 9.1%;
Swedish Krona - 4.2%;
Swiss franc - 3.6%.
The first coefficient in the formula leads the index to 100 at the start date of the countdown - March 1973, when the main currencies began to be freely quoted relative to each other.
