EUR/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! According to the hourly chart, everything goes according to plan. The new downward trend line clearly indicates the "bearish" mood of most traders. Thus, it will be possible to sell the pair until the quotes close above this very trend line. In general, the EUR/USD pair continues the process of falling on April 3. News coming from various parts of the world remains disappointing. The COVID-2019 virus continues to spread, and today the official number of infected people around the world has exceeded 1,000,000. Most of the sick citizens are in America, but this does not make any negative impression on the American currency. Also yesterday, traders were very happy to miss the important economic report from the US on unemployment...
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a rebound from the corrective level of 38.2% (1.0964) and a reversal in favor of the US dollar with the resumption of falling quotes. As a result, at the moment, traders have worked out the Fibo level of 23.6% (1.0840) and now either there will be a rebound from this level or closure under it. In the first case, a reversal will be made in favor of the EU currency and the growth process will begin in the direction of the corrective level of 38.2% (1.0964). In the second case, the chances of a further fall in quotes will significantly increase, in the direction of the next Fibo level of 0.0% (1.0638). There are no pending divergences in any indicator today.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair fell to the next corrective level of 23.6% (1.0840). The graphic pattern is identical to the 4-hour chart. I recommend that you monitor the lower charts more closely, especially the hourly chart.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pair has a high chance of continuing the growth process, since the breakdown of the lower border of the "narrowing triangle" turned out to be false. Thus, it can be considered a rebound, not a breakdown. In the future, the euro/dollar pair has the ability to perform growth to the level of 1.1600, that is, to the upper line of the triangle.
Overview of fundamentals:
On April 2, one report on the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits was released in America. And this report showed an overall increase in the number to 6.65 million from the previous 3.5 million. Thus (although it is not yet unemployment), more and more Americans are losing their jobs, although the US government is doing its best to support the US economy, business and ordinary citizens with cheap loans and gratuitous aid. We are waiting for other economic reports on the state of the American economy.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
Germany - the index of business activity in the services sector (09:55 GMT).
EU-index of business activity in the service sector (10-00 GMT).
US - unemployment rate (14:30 GMT).
US - change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector (14:30 GMT).
US - change in average hourly earnings (14:30 GMT).
US - ISM composite index for the non-manufacturing sector (16:00 GMT).
On April 3, there will be many reports that will attract the attention of traders. Almost all of them are in America. The European report on business activity in service industries is unlikely to appeal to traders. But weak data on unemployment, Nonfarm Payrolls and business activity in the ISM services sector may suspend the growth of the US currency in pair with the European one.
COT report (Commitments of Traders):
A new COT report will be released today. I believe that the graphic picture is now very eloquent, so the COT report can only help reveal the longer-term mood of the major market players. To show which contacts were interested in speculators and hedgers a week ago, and from what they were trying to get rid of. And how the overall ratio of short and long contracts has changed. At the moment, the advantage remains with short-term contracts, but since their total number has been decreasing in recent weeks, the euro currency has a chance to grow. If the new report finds that the number of short contracts has increased again, this will increase the probability of a further fall in the pair.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
Now I recommend selling the pair with the target of 1.0638 if the quotes close at the level of 23.6% on the 4-hour chart. As a signal to buy (and close sales), I recommend that you consider fixing quotes above the new trend line on the hourly chart. In this case, the goal is 1.1065.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
