Results of analysis of the COT report for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on June 5
EUR / USD
The expected slowdown yesterday was only limited to lower time intervals. The daily trend was actively continued. The pair reached the next important benchmark - the monthly medium-term trend (1.1260). As a result, a slowdown is possible again. A breakthrough of this resistance will open the way to the fulfillment of the daily goal for the breakdown of the cloud (1.1412-99) and the monthly Fibo Kijun (1.1530). In the event of a slowdown or a downward correction, yesterday's resistance, led by the upper border of the weekly cloud (1.1225), can now work as support (1.1225 - 1.1190 - 1.1167). It should be noted that, as expected, the trend set at the close of the previous week and month was continued. From an analysis of the previous COT report (Commitments of Traders dated 05/26/20), it was concluded that major market players responsible for maintaining the current trend advantage, maintain and strengthen the support of players to increase. It was also assumed that the daily trend movement could not do without deep downward corrections, since the final majority was still on the side of the bears (91.9% against 86.3%). However, this expectation has not yet been confirmed, possibly due to the fact that the Commercials group, capable of provoking a reversal, at the time of reporting did not have a significant and necessary advantage in short positions over long positions. Today, we close the week and look forward to the release of a new report. At the moment, the advantage on the side of the players is to increase, the upward daily trend is in the active phase. The corrective assumptions in the upper halves have not yet been formed.
In the lower halves, with the support of all the analyzed technical instruments, an upward trend is developing. The upward pivot points within the day are the resistance of the classic pivot levels - 1.1400 (R1) - 1.1465 (R2) - 1.1567 (R3). On the other hand, the key lower support is located today at 1.1298 (central pivot level) and 1.1191 (weekly long-term trend).
GBP / USD
The players to decline made a small corrective decline yesterday and updated the minimum of the previous day. Nevertheless, the correction did not receive a larger development. During the day, it was completed with the continuation of the upward trend. Active promotion of players to increase is currently held back by a fairly wide resistance zone, combining the accumulation of levels - a monthly medium-term trend (1.2595), a weekly cloud (1.2620-70) and a weekly Fibo Kijun (1.2710). It takes time to form the result of the interaction with the encountered resistances. In the latest COT report (Commitments of Traders dated 05/26/20), the Non-Commercial group advantage remained on the bearish side. However, the pound failed to maintain the bearish trend. Moreover, a golden cross appeared on the daily chart of Ichimoku, as a result, the pair came with an upward trend by the end of the week. Apparently, the circumstances at this stage were stronger than the large trend bears, which only hypes interest in the data of today's COT report.
There is an upward trend on the hourly chart (H1). The advantages of technical instruments, while completely on the side of the players to increase. Resistances within the day are the classic pivot levels (1.2649 - 1.2707 - 1.2781). The key support, which is responsible for the distribution of forces at lower time intervals, is now located at 1.2575 (central Pivot level) and 1.2508 (weekly long-term trend).
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (classic), Moving Average (120)
