EUR/USD 1H
Traders did not even rush from side to side on the hourly timeframe on June 26, but they simply did not know what to do. The euro/dollar stood in one place throughout the trading day, trying to overcome the rising trend line and the resistance area of 1.1227-1.1241 several times. However, all these attempts failed and it is not clear whether the downward trend that has begun will continue, or if the bulls will become active, because thanks to the upward trend line, the growth trend remains. We believe that buyers will have to work very hard to resume their upward movement. The fact is that there are several serious barriers in the form of key lines of the Ichimoku indicator on top of the pair, as well as areas of resistance highlighted in red rectangles. Bears need to confidently overcome the trend line and the downward path will be open up to $1.11 and $1.10.
EUR/USD 15M
The lower linear regression channel continues to be downward on the 15-minute timeframe, reflecting a long-term downward trend. The lower - turned up, but the movement was lateral in the last trading day.
COT report
The new COT report, which came out last Friday, as we expected, showed no major changes. The pair has been trading in different directions in the last ten days, and there is no pronounced trend. It seems to be downward, but sellers do not have a clear advantage. The most interesting group of professional traders for us, which includes various organizations that enter the foreign exchange market in order to make a profit, in the reporting week opened only 3,000 transactions for the purchase and 2,000 transactions for the sale, which is very small. A group of hedgers were more active, but it did not drive the market. The total number of transactions increased by almost 20,000, short positions had an advantage. However, in general, we can characterize this report as boring and uninformative. Over the reporting week, the mood of major players remained virtually unchanged.
The general fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair also remained virtually unchanged on Friday and over the weekend. Firstly, we note that recently very little amount of important and interesting information has come to the disposal of traders. There is no new information on the topic of a trade war between China and the United States. There is no interesting information about the confrontation between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and on election topics in general. There is no new information about mass protests and rallies in the United States. Even Trump himself has taken a break on air in recent days and is not giving any comments. Perhaps this explains some of the drowsiness of the market last week. There will be a sufficient number of planned important events in the new week, and we hope that they will move the pair from the dead spot and we will not become witnesses of the flat. However, no important publications and speeches are planned in the European Union and the United States on Monday, so sluggish and boring trading could continue. Volatility is likely to be low.
Based on the foregoing, we have two trading ideas for June 29:
1) Bears have already made several attempts to overcome the trend line, but so far without much success. Thus, we are now advised to wait until this line is overcome and afterwards, open new sell orders with targets at support levels 1.1112 and 1.1047 (targets will be specified at the auction on Monday). Potential Take Profit range from 80 to 150 points.
2) Buyers can return to the market, but there are too many barriers in forming an upward trend. Thus, we advise you to wait until the 1.1326-1.1341 area is overcome before buying the EUR/USD pair while aiming for the resistance level of 1.1417 (will also be specified on Monday). Potential Take Profit in this case is about 70 points.
