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23.11.202015:41 Prehľad analýz forexového trhu: EUR/USD: plan for the American session on November 23 (analysis of morning deals)

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need to:

In my morning forecast, I recommended opening long positions after the breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1890. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened. Weak data on the services sector of the Eurozone countries were completely ignored, as it was already clear that nothing good can be expected against the background of the coronavirus pandemic. The buyers who broke above 1.1890 were much more surprised, however, they have not yet managed to wait for a good signal to buy the euro. The reverse test of this level from top to bottom did not take place, so I did not enter into purchases.

Exchange Rates 23.11.2020 analysis

In the second half of the day, the focus will shift to the level of 1.1890. Its top-down test forms a convenient entry point for long positions, after which you can count on the continuation of the upward trend to the area of 1.1929, where I recommend fixing the profits. The longer-term goal will be a maximum of 1.2008, which is the psychological level of this year. In the scenario of a lack of buyer activity in the area of 1.1890 and the pair falling below this level, I recommend that you abandon long positions before updating the minimum of 1.1844 and buy euros there immediately for a rebound. There is no really good news for the European currency, so it is very difficult to count on further growth.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to:

The initial goal of euro sellers is to regain control of the 1.1890 level, which they missed today as a result of the 4th test in a row. However, as we can see on the chart, there are no active purchases above 1.1890, so the bears may be able to regain the market. Fixing EUR/USD below 1.1890 in the second half of the day and testing this level from the bottom up forms a pretty good entry point for short positions, especially given the fundamental data released today on the European economy. The nearest target in this scenario will be at least 1.1844, where I recommend fixing the profit. However, it is worth remembering that as long as trading is above 1.1890, demand for the euro will continue. Therefore, with the further strengthening of the EUR/USD pair, it is best not to rush with sales, but wait for the update of the maximum of 1.1929 and sell the euro from there immediately on the rebound, counting on a downward correction of 15-20 points within the day.

Exchange Rates 23.11.2020 analysis

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates an attempt by the bulls to continue pushing the market up.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

If the pair declines, the lower limit of the indicator will act as support in the area of 1.1844, the breakout of which will increase the pressure on the pair.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

*The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert
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