The wave counting for the Pound/Dollar instrument has cleared up a little thanks to the recent drop in quotes. Now we can say with more confidence that the supposed wave e has completed its construction. Consequently, the entire upward trend of the a - b - c - d - e pattern has ended. If this is indeed the case, then the construction of a new downward trend has begun, which may turn out to be three-wave. At the moment, the construction of its first wave a is supposedly completed. If this is true, then the construction of the upward wave b has begun, which can complete its construction around the 40th figure. The whole wave pattern looks like an alternation of not only corrective waves (impulse waves are absent now), but also as an alternation of corrective trend sections. The best thing to do now is not to try to figure out the internal waves, as the structures of the older waves are extremely complex. Let me remind you that wave counting must first of all be understandable so that you can work and earn money using it. If this condition is not met, then it is better not to risk it.
The Pound/Dollar instrument rose by almost 100 basis points on Monday, which gives me a reason to assume the completion of the construction of wave a. There is no news background today, and both instruments (euro and pound) are moving almost identically. Given the fact that the Euro/Dollar is also ripe for the construction of an upward wave and also presumably b, the chances of an increase in both currencies are growing. At the same time, the Euro/Dollar instrument will not have the same strong background as the Pound/Dollar during this week. On Thursday, the results of the meeting of the Bank of England will be summed up, during which there may also be more than one surprise. Let me remind you that the Fed did not make any vital decisions, only hinted at a possible tapering of the QE program in the future. This was enough for the instrument to collapse by 300 basis points. Thus, Andrew Bailey can also say that the Bank of England is considering the possibility of completing the stimulus in the future, which may already lead to a reverse movement, no less strong. Also, during the voting of the members of the monetary committee, several functionaries can vote to taper the QE program, which will have the same meaning. Thus, the activity of the market this week may remain quite high, but everything will depend on the meeting of the Bank of England and its results since there will be few other important events during the week. I can also highlight Jerome Powell's speech tomorrow, although I don't really expect the Fed chairman to say anything else that will greatly affect the demand for the US dollar.
At this time, the wave pattern has cleared up a bit. However, the supposed wave a may already be completed. If this is the case, then the construction of the assumed wave b has begun, the targets of which are located 100-150 points above the current levels. Thus, I recommend now to buy the instrument for each signal of the MACD indicator "up".
The upward trend, which began its construction a couple of months ago, has taken on a rather ambiguous form and has already been completed. However, the wave counting still looks rather difficult, as there is no impulse movement now. Presumably, the construction of a new, minimum of the three-wave downward trend section has begun. Thus, we can expect a decline in quotes in the future to the lows of waves c and b.
