10.11.2021: Oil rises on US crude stockpile decline - Outlook for Brent, USD/RUB, GOLD
Since the very beginning of the week, market participants have been awaiting US inflation data to be released today. Exciting anticipation contributed to a revival in the markets, including the commodity one. Thus, yesterday, oil prices managed to advance to $85 per barrel. Moreover, in case of higher inflation and amid a decline in US crude oil inventories, oil prices may well extend gains.
Today, the American Petroleum Institute has already released its weekly report on US oil inventories. The data showed a draw in crude stocks in the week ended November 5. This means that oil prices will most likely continue rising.
Indeed, BRENT crude oil futures moved up. Yesterday, the quote not only managed to overcome the level of $84 per barrel but also rose to $85.5. At the moment, the benchmark is likely to enter a technical correction, which may drag the price down to $84. However, it will hardly drop below this level. After all, all factors point to greater oil demand. That is why Brent crude is expected to trade between $84 and $85 per barrel in the near future.
As for the foreign exchange market, expectations of US inflation data is exerting pressure on the dollar. Meanwhile, the ruble is gaining in value. Yesterday, the Russian currency was supported by data on the international reserves of the Bank of Russia. In the week, Russia’s international reserves rose to $624 billion from $614 billion. This helped the ruble avoid a pullback following the release of statistics on US producer prices. Today’s data on inflation in the United States may also lead to gains in the Russian currency. Besides, do not forget about the commodity market. Higher oil prices always have a positive effect on the ruble.
In the meantime, the dollar/ruble pair is trading downwards. Analysts do not rule out that the pair may well return to the psychological level of 70 rubles per dollar. Currently, the quotes are moving at around 70.70 rubles per dollar.
In anticipation of the US inflation report, gold is trading upwards. The safe-haven asset is gaining in value. The quote has already reached the threshold of $1,830 per troy ounce for the first time since mid-June. Investors' fears are expected to continue pushing the precious metal up. Moreover, US inflation data may become a driver that could help gold overcome the June level.
Thus, gold futures have every chance of extending gains, albeit through a technical correction. Although the price has dropped to $1,825, analysts are confident that it will be able to approach $1,840 per troy ounce.
As you can see, trading excitement in anticipation of US economic indicators has already affected the dynamics of the trading instruments. Thus, the markets may turn quite choppy within the next 24 hours.
00:00 Inflation and oil prices
00:27 US crude oil inventories
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