4-hour timeframe

Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – down.

CCI: -172.1986

A day remains before the announcement of the results of the meeting of the European Central Bank, the euro continues to fall, and traders finally get their hands on macroeconomic statistics. Although, as shown on Tuesday, the bears did not need statistics in order to activate and lead the euro to new lows. We have already written about the possible results of the ECB meeting many times. At best, for the euro, monetary easing and a restart of the QE program for the future will be announced, at worst – the deposit rate will be reduced by 10-20 points. Today, on Wednesday, July 24, there will also be interesting information that can affect the euro/dollar exchange rate. We are talking about 6 indices of business activity in Germany and the European Union. Recall that the indices of business activity in the manufacturing sector and Germany, and the EU is below 50, which signals a negative trend. Business activity in the service sector is still above 50, as well as composite indices, however, the overall trend is still downward. Since there were no prerequisites for the growth of business activity in the past month, we do not expect serious increases in these indicators. There may be small changes for the better, but it is unlikely that the euro will react to their growth. But an even greater drop in business activity in any sphere can lead to a new wave of sales of the European currency. In this case, the pair has every chance to update the annual lows.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1108

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1169

R2 – 1.1230

R3 – 1.1292

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD currency pair continues its downward movement. On July 24, therefore, it is still recommended to sell the euro/dollar pair with a target of 1.1108 before the reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top.

It is recommended to buy the euro in small lots if the bulls manage to return the pair above the moving average line, which will change the trend to the upward one, and the first goal, in this case, will be the level of 1.1292.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – blue line unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – purple line unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.