EUR / USD, GBP / USD.
Yesterday, the main currency pairs continued a bearish correction on the growth of expectations of an increase in the likelihood of the Fed's rate in March from 65% to 73% and unexpressed macroeconomic data. Industrial production in Germany in December lost 0.6% (forecast was even worse, -0.7%), retail sales in Italy decreased by 0.3% against expectations of -0.1%, the trade balance of France for December improved from - 5.6 billion euros to -3.5 billion and in the US, the consumer lending in the December estimate was 18.4 billion dollars against the forecast of 19.9 billion and 31.0 billion in November. Speaking yesterday, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley, as expected, the markets reassured, saying that the current situation is only a typical correction that does not cause concern to the Fed and the changes in monetary policy will not be affected. A positive force for European markets is the final steps of the German parties to create a coalition government. Martin Schulz is the Minister of Foreign Affairs. Today is Germany's trade balance for December. The forecast is 21.5 billion euros against 22.3 billion a month earlier. According to the US, there are data on applications for unemployment benefits. The forecast is almost unchanged, 232 thousand versus 230 thousand a week earlier.
At 12:00 London time, the Bank of England publishes a decision on monetary policy and protocols from the last meeting. Tomorrow in the United States, the term of temporary financing of the budget expires. Today, a decision can be made to extend the funding until March 23. But the Congress is already at the final stage of the adoption of a two-year budget, which provides an additional 165 billion military expenditures, 131 billion investment in infrastructure, the adoption of a 4-year program of child health insurance, etc. Adoption of the budget for the stock market will definitely have a positive impact, but how much investors will want to continue to take risks in buying the euro, until the end is not clear. We adhere to the previously adopted idea of ending risky sentiments closer to the March meeting of the Fed. We are waiting for the euro at 1.2365, pound sterling in the range of 1.3980-1.4000.
AUD / USD.
The Australian dollar, of course, could not withstand the large-scale external pressure, under which the stock market, commodities were declining and the US dollar was strengthening itself. On Wednesday, AUD / USD lost 82 points. The oil fell by 2.5%, gold by -0.5%, copper by -2.8%. The growth was observed in iron ore, 0.51%. The construction activity index for AIG in Australia in January rose to 54.3 from 52.8. But today, the NAB business confidence index in the quarterly estimate showed a decline from 8 to 6. Today, China published a trade balance for January. The balance decreased from 54.69 billion dollars to 20.34 billion. The quality of the balance is good. Exports increased from 10.9% y / y to 11.1% y / y, but the fall in the balance sheet was due to a sharp increase in imports - from 4.5% y / y to 36.9% y / y against the forecast of 9.8 % y / y, which can later be transformed into a strong production growth. Tomorrow, according to Australia, there are data on housing loans for December, a forecast of -0.9%. We are waiting for the continued decline of the "Australian" in the range of 0.7700 / 50.
