4 hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 73p - 87p - 63p - 121p - 85p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 86p (89p).

On Friday, January 11, the EUR/USD currency pair was trading in an absolutely calm way all day. The total range of movements on the last trading day of the week does not exceed 20 points, hence, we can say that the pair is just standing still. No important macroeconomic report has been published in Europe today. The only report expected from the US fully corresponded to the predicted value of inflation slowed down to 1.9% y/y in December. Since America did not present any surprises today, traders had nothing to react to. No new messages from the White House or personally from Donald Trump, who likes to "inform" the markets through social networks. The strengthening of the euro in recent days was more powerful than before and can even be called somewhat random. The fact that the Fed is ready to complete the program of tightening monetary policy, only at first glance is negative. In general, the Fed has significantly increased the rate in recent years, therefore, a small pause does not interfere unequivocally. Plus, the European Union and the ECB do not even think about tightening monetary policy. Therefore, as we have repeatedly said, the growth potential of the euro now looks quite limited. The euro will also not be able to go very far. On the one hand, the growth of the euro is more associated with the fall of the dollar, as well as negative news from the States. Thus, it is quite difficult to say that this Euro currency is being strengthened. One negative from the States, and a rather dubious negative, the euro will also not be able to go very far.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to be adjusted, thus, it is recommended to open new longs after the MACD indicator turns upward when the price is above the critical line. The goal is the resistance level of 1.1588.

Short positions can be opened in small lots no earlier than fixing the price below the Kijun-Sen line with a target at the level of 1.1431. This will be the first step of the instrument on the way to a trend change to a downward one.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.