4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 63p - 121p - 85p - 83p - 31p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 76p (88p).

The EUR/USD currency pair on Tuesday, January 15, a day that could be crucial for the UK, Theresa May and the current government, and is simply very important for the EU, continued to decline a few days ago. However, in the US trading session, the European currency began to grow. However, all these movements can be completely unrelated to the evening vote in the British Parliament. We have already written several times about what decisions can be made by the UK government. We will not repeat. From our point of view, the May plan for Brexit will not be adopted. And in this case new political peripeteias will begin with a possible second referendum, new negotiations with the EU. If the parliament approves the Chequers plan, then it will be a frank surprise for everyone, and especially for the euro currency and the pound sterling. In this case, both European currencies can get substantial support. Literally in an hour, the speech of the Chairman of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, will begin, which in his speech may touch on the topic of monetary policy and the topic of Brexit. In the course of the day, not a single important macroeconomic report was published either in America or in the European Union. Thus, in the last hours ahead of the meeting of the Parliament of Great Britain, it is recommended not to aggravate the situation and not to risk in vain. From a technical point of view, the picture needs to be clarified, since a new "dead cross" has been formed, but the price failed to consolidate below the critical line. In general, the best option for traders is to remain out of the market until the final Brexit decision appears in the media.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues its downward movement. Formally, shorts are now relevant in small lots for the purpose of the support level of 1.1386. A Stop Loss order is required, as well as increased caution in the coming hours.

Long positions can be considered not earlier than the consolidation of the price above the Kijun-sen line with the first target of 1.1526, and then – to 1.1560. In this case, the initiative on the instrument will again fall into the hands of the bulls.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen-red line.

Kijun-sen – blue line.

Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.

Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.

Chikou span – green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.