EUR/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders. According to the 1-hour chart, after an early rebound from the upward trend line the EUR/USD pair started rising again and reached the level of 1.1000 yesterday. Thus, the trend line continues maintaining bullish sentiment among traders, which has also significantly strengthened in recent days. Earlier, the European currency fell dramatically. Today, the price is rising as it used to on its glory days. Thus, there are no signs for changing the trader sentiment to bearish.
EUR/USD – 4H.
The 4-hour chart indicates that the bullish trend continues. The pair consolidated above the correction levels of 1,0936 (50.0%) and 1,0973 (61.8%) and is rising to the next possible correction level of 1.1020 (76.4%). If the closing price is above Fibonacci level, it is likely that the currency pair can reach the next correction level of 1.1094 (100.0%). The current rebound of quotations from the level of 76.4% is expected to be in favor of the dollar. The price can slope to the levels of 1.0973 and 1.0936. There is no divergence near any of the indicators. The pair did not manage to stay below or inside the downward trend corridor which is no longer valid
EUR/USD – Daily
On the daily chart, the euro-dollar pair is rising further in the direction of the upper line of the downtrend corridor. As I previously mentioned, the upside potential of the euro on this chart is still limited by the level of 1.1100. The pair can reach this level in the coming days if the bullish momentum remains strong. No new graphic formations and patterns are observed at the moment.
EUR/USD – Weekly
The weekly chart indicated the pair quotes rebound from the lower border of the tapering triangle. Thus, the bullish trend is expected to continue, and the price may reach the top line of the the tapering triangle, approximately to the level of 1,1600.
News review:
There was no important news in the eurozone on February 27. However, the US released significant economic data regarding durable goods orders that showed a decrease of 0.2%. However, other indicators marked 1.1%, 3.6%, and 0.9% increases, that was much higher than traders expected. The US GDP expanded by 2.1% in the fourth quarter. Anyway,traders paid little attention to this piece of news. The euro was strengthening.
Economic Calendar for USA and EU:
Germany is set to release the Consumer price index data.
The US is going to present personal income and spending data.
Today, no important news is expected. Nevertheless, you should pay attention to the two reports mentioned above as they can slightly affect the mood of traders on February 28. Although, considering the stronger bullish sentiment, it is unlikely.
COT survey (Commitments of traders):
The weekly COT report as of February 25 is slated for release later today. Given the fact that the euro gained ground this week, the COT survey is likely to show how the number of Long and Short positions on the market has changed, which can help determine the future quotes movement. Later, I am going to analyze this report, but for now, only technical and graphical factors can determine the sentiment of traders.
Forecast for EUR/USD pair and recommendations for traders:
Long deals are preferable with the targets at 1,1020 and 1,1094. At this moment, the trend line on the hourly chart determines the bullish sentiment, but it is already quite far from the current price rate. Closing of buy deals is on a rebound from any important Fibonacci level.
TERMS:
Non-commercial are major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private and large investors.
Commercial - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not for speculative profit, but for ensuring current activities or export-import operations.
Non-reportable positions - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
