The most recent published report on the obligations of traders (Commitments of Traders on 05/19/20.) does not contain significant changes in indicators that would be able to lead to a change in the mood of the market. Nevertheless, open interest in the euro (547.206) remains at a fairly high level. This currency is still in higher demand among other currencies. According to statistics, 263 accountable exchange participants are currently working with the euro, and despite a certain advantage in the number of traders who prefer long positions (long 76 and 104 - short 47 and 77), they are almost equally divided between the directions of movement in terms of the number of contracts (469.943 and 499.975), and therefore cash. The group of large players (Non-Commercial), which is responsible for trend preferences, has now an advantage in long contracts (167,756 against 95,194), and hedgers (Commercials), foreshadowing changes in sentiment, retain the dominance of short positions (397.961 versus 295.367). This situation has been observed for more than a week, while, as can be seen from the report, both the exchange participants lowered their predominant positions last week. A more detailed financial report shows that the first most indicative group of market participants (brokers, dealers) currently largely supports players to increase (281,244 against 42,690). This indicator also has a weakening factor, since such interest has been observed for more than a week, while market participants no longer increase their positions, but, as can be seen from the report for the last week, they, on the contrary, reduced their bull positions to a greater extent ( 6.096 vs 1.992).
Main conclusion
The market situation is likely to maintain its previous trends this week. Both players to increase and players to decrease will seek to change it. In this situation, the safety net of big money is largely maintained on the side of the players to increase.
The technical picture of what is happening confirms the unrealized financial reporting advantages of the last time. There is a consolidation on the weeks, and a sideways movement on the daily chart. The March crosshairs of the positions of the two largest groups of market participants (Non-Commercial and Commercials) on the schedule of reports of COT (Commitments of Traders) formed a high wave during candlestick analysis.Thus, we managed to stop and restrain the situation from further bearish fall. Now, both major groups of traders have found some balance in their opposition and have taken an almost horizontal position on the chart. Therefore, it is probably not necessary to expect significant changes in the movement in the near future. The center of attraction of the side channel on the daily chart is currently the daily Ichimoku cross (1.0907 - 1.0873 - 1.0839), the upper border is the daily cloud and the weekly Fibo Kijun (1.0965), the role of the lower border is perfectly performed by the historical support at 1.0778.
In the lower halves, the preponderance of forces at the time of analysis is observed on the side of the players to decline. The key resistances concentrate their efforts in the area of 1.0913-26 (central Pivot level + weekly long-term trend). Support for the classic Pivot levels on H1 are located today at 1.0873 - 1.0844 - 1.0804. The resistance of the classic Pivot levels, in case of a change in mood, will meet a pair at 1.0942 - 1.0982 - 1.1011.
