The euro showed some activity despite the non-working banking day in the United States. True, there was no sense in it. Solid shadows, and even then insignificant. But in the end, the day ended exactly at the same values with which it began. So without America, Europe was only able to issue jumps in place.
Nevertheless, there is nothing strange in the initial promise to weaken the euro. It began to get cheaper against the background of the final data on German GDP for the first quarter, which confirmed the fact that the economy fell by 2.3%. In general, this could not surprise anyone, since a preliminary assessment showed just such a value. However, the mere fact of a decline in the economy is clearly not pleasing to anyone. Moreover, they attribute all this to restrictive measures introduced due to the coronavirus epidemic. But these measures themselves were introduced only in mid-March. That is, at the very end of the quarter. So from all this we can safely conclude that according to the results of the second quarter, the decline will be even greater. However, in the end, the euro returned exactly to the values with which its symbolic weakening began.
GDP growth rate (Germany):
Following a couple of days of relative calm in the market, investors have been attracted to real estate data in the United States. Moreover, they should be the reason for the dollar to weaken. In particular, the S&P/CaseShiller data should show a slowdown in housing price growth from 3.5% to 3.0%. But not only should the pace of housing price growth noticeably slow down, so sales of new homes may also decline by 21.1%. And if the data on prices for March, that's for sales, already in April. And although the lowest value for sales, established in 2011, might not be achieved, the pace of decline may be the largest in history.
New Home Sales (United States):
From the point of view of technical analysis, we see a downward movement from the psychological level of 1.1000, where the quote managed to go down to the area of 1.0880, but then there was a stop, followed by a pullback. We can say that the clock component of the flat forming 1.0775/1.1000 is still relevant in the market, where the set boundaries are worked out sequentially. It is worth considering that the current stop coincided with the average deviation of the channel 1.0885, which is considered a variable level in the structure of forming a flat.
In terms of a general review of the trading chart, the daily period, it is clear that the flat is a small part of the whole movement, since there was a compression process before it, and all past fluctuations are the structure of the global downward trend.
It can be assumed that the rebound from the average deviation of the side channel will not last long, where you should not exclude the return of the price within the 1.0880/1.0910 area.
Specifying all of the above into trading signals:
- We consider purchase positions as local operations, which are directed towards the values of 1.0940-1.0950.
- We consider sell positions in the structure of a downward bar, from the upper border of the flat formation. In this case, the quote must be returned to the area of 1.0880, where in the event that the price is consolidated lower than 1.0870, the path will then open in the direction of 1.0775.
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that because of the pivot point of the average deviation of the channel, local upward interest has emerged with respect to the hour and day periods.
