Markets have completely switched their attention to the recovery processes in the global economy. The exit of economically important countries from quarantine, the absence of a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the latest economic statistics, or rather production indicators, indicate that the most difficult part of the crisis has already passed and a cautious recovery process has already begun.
These are the main reasons for the growth in demand for stocks of companies, commodity and commodity assets and the weakening dollar. But not all. Two other important factors should also be separately noted – these are unprecedented incentive measures from the Fed and the US Treasury, as well as the absence of really serious actions against China by Washington. The previous "terrible" statements of D. Trump have not yet taken shape into something noticeably serious. It should also be noted that, it seems, there is a process of hidden negotiation between the countries. This is indicated by the decision of Beijing to resume purchases of agricultural products in America, although they were recently stopped.
Everything that happens that was listed above is the strongest factor in pressure on the US dollar. Previously, it received support only against the backdrop of fears caused by the pandemic and the uncertainty of when and how it would all end. As before, we should expect continued depreciation in relation to major currencies.
Today, data on employment in Germany will be published. It is expected that the number of unemployed in May declined from 373,000 a month earlier to 200,000. This will be positive news, which, along with the expectation of the ECB's final monetary policy decision this Thursday, may give another impulse to the growth of the euro against the dollar. Markets expect the regulator to increase its bond purchase program in the amount of 750 billion euros, and also, possibly, expand measures for the emergency purchase of assets amid a pandemic by about 500 billion euros. An important signal for investors is the ECB's decision to buy back all of Italy's new debt over the past two months. In addition, the bank managed to keep the growth of borrowing costs for countries affected by the coronavirus epidemic.
A meeting of the Central Bank of Canada on monetary policy will be held today. It is expected that the regulator will leave interest rates and the general rate unchanged. It can be assumed that if the bank in the final press release is optimistic about the recovery of the Canadian economy from the pandemic crisis, then this, against the background of continued growth in prices for "black gold", will support the demand for the Canadian currency.
Forecast of the day:
The EUR/USD pair is trading at the level of 1.1200 as it awaits publication of employment data in Germany. If they turn out to be no worse than the forecast, then this may stimulate the pair to further increase to the level of 1.1235, and then to 1.1280.
The USD/CAD pair is consolidating at the level of 1.3500 in anticipation of the final decision of the Central Bank of Canada on monetary policy. The pair will most likely continue to decline in the wake of hopes that the Central Bank will not only keep interest rates unchanged, but will positively assess the prospects for the country's economy. At this wave, the pair will decline to the level of 1.3420.
