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09.11.2020 10:08 AM
EUR/USD. November 9. COT report. Joe Biden won the election, Donald Trump will challenge the results in court

EUR/USD – 1H.

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On November 6, the EUR/USD pair continued the growth process after it completed a consolidation above the narrowing triangle. Thus, fixing quotes above the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.1881) allows traders to expect further growth in the direction of the next corrective level of 127.2% (1.1956). Closing the pair's rate under the Fibo level of 100.0% will work in favor of the US currency and start falling towards the level of 76.4% (1.1815). Thus, Joe Biden won the American election with at least 279 electoral votes out of 538. 270 votes were enough to win. Thus, Biden's victory is not unequivocal and unconditional, although 4 million more Americans voted for him than for Trump. The current US President gets only 214 electoral votes and loses the election. There are also no final results in two other states, thus, Trump can close the gap on Biden or Biden can increase the gap on Trump. By and large, this moment is important only for Donald Trump, who announced that he won the election. Trump believes that voting by mail should have been stopped on November 4, as it is a fraud on the part of the Democrats. Thus, the smaller the gap between Trump and Biden, the more likely it is that the US President will try to challenge the election results through the Supreme Court. Trump has already stated this repeatedly and is likely to follow this path.

EUR/USD – 4H.

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On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes rose to the upper border of the sideways trend corridor. The pair's rebound from this line will work in favor of the US currency and start falling in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1729) and the lower line of the side corridor. Thus, the upper line of the corridor is now extremely important for the future of the US currency. Closing the pair's rate above the corridor will increase the chances of further growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.2027).

EUR/USD – Daily.

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On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair consolidated above the corrective level of 261.8% (1.1825). Thus, the growth process can be continued towards the next Fibo level of 323.6% (1.2084), however, I recommend paying more attention to the lower charts now.

EUR/USD – Weekly.

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On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair, but in the long term. In the short term, a drop is preferable.

Overview of fundamentals:

On November 6, there were no economic reports or news in the European Union, and in America, there were quite important reports on Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment. Both turned out to be better than traders' expectations, however, the traders themselves did not pay enough attention to them.

The news calendar for the United States and the European Union:

EU - ECB President Christine Lagarde will make a speech (09:25 GMT).

On November 9, the European Union calendar includes a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde. No more news is planned for this day.

COT (Commitments of Traders) report:

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The latest COT report was quite informative. The most important category of "Non-commercial" traders got rid of another 9 thousand long contracts during the reporting week (-12 thousand a week earlier), so speculators continue to get rid of purchases of the euro currency. At the same time, they are also increasing short-contracts, the total number of which has increased by 7.8 thousand. Thus, the strengthening of the "bearish" mood is evident. Based on this, I could conclude that the European currency will fall further, but last week's trading may change the mood of major traders dramatically. The euro has grown by 250 points over the past week, but this growth is not taken into account in the COT report. Only the next report will show how big traders traded after November 2.

Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:

Today, I recommend opening sales of the euro currency with the goals of 1.1815 and 1.1774, if the pair closes at the level of 100.0% (1.1881) on the hourly chart or rebounds from the upper border of the side corridor on the 4-hour chart. Purchases of the pair will be possible with the targets of 1.1956 and 1.2027 if the quotes are fixed above the side corridor on the 4-hour chart.

Terms:

"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.

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