GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday continued the process of growth to the corrective level of 127.2% (1.3264). However, the pair has not yet been fixed above this level. Closing above it will allow traders to expect further growth towards the next Fibo level of 161.8% (1.3375). The Briton, meanwhile, received quite unexpected support from the UK Parliament. Let me remind you that in early September, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a bill "on the internal market", which was supposed to protect Northern Ireland and the whole of the UK from a possible transport blockade by the EU. At least, this was the official version of Boris Johnson himself, which he announced publicly. However, that bill violates some of the provisions of the Brexit agreement with the European Union, which was reached last year. The Lower House of Parliament approved the bill in two readings. Simply because the majority in this chamber are conservatives. But the House of Lords or Upper House blocked this bill yesterday, which is extremely rare. Usually, the House of Lords only makes adjustments and additions. But this time the Lords blocked a bill that could damage the UK's international reputation. And on this message, the British continued its growth. However, Johnson, according to the press, is not going to give up and will continue to try to pass this bill.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a consolidation above the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3191), despite the "bearish" divergence in the CCI indicator. Thus, the growth process can now be continued towards the next Fibo level of 0.0% (1.3481). Bull traders still own the initiative, however, the information background is now such that at any moment the British can resume falling.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes have consolidated above the corrective level of 76.4% (1.3016), which now allows us to expect further growth in the direction of the next corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair closed under the lower downtrend line, thus, a false breakout of this line followed earlier. However, in recent weeks, the pair has made new attempts to gain a foothold over both trend lines.
Overview of fundamentals:
Several interesting reports were released in the UK on Tuesday. So, the unemployment rate rose slightly in October to 4.8%, but traders expected this value. Average wages also rose and slightly more than traders expected. However, traders attached much more importance to the refusal of the House of Lords to vote for the "internal market" bill. It was this event that caused new purchases of the British.
The economic calendar for the US and the UK:
On November 11, the UK and US news calendar does not contain any interesting reports or events. The information background may not be available today unless there is some unexpected information from the UK Parliament or about the progress of negotiations on a trade agreement.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report on the British pound showed that the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became even more "bearish" during the reporting week. Speculators continued to get rid of long contracts, closing a total of 3,281 units. At the same time, they slightly increased the number of short contracts, opening 1,146. Thus, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category has become more "bearish". However, due to the US presidential election, the British pound rose strongly last week. This data was not included in the latest COT report, so I can't conclude how the mood of major traders changed after November 2. You need to wait for the next COT report and analyze it. According to the latest report, I can say that the chances of the British pound falling are very high now.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend selling the GBP/USD pair with a target of 1.3176, if the rebound from the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.3264) is completed on the hourly chart. I recommend buying the British dollar with a target of 1.3375 if the close above the level of 1.3264 is completed.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
