The wave counting on the 4-hour chart is still completely understandable and does not require any additions. Over the past few days, the instrument's quotes have built a very similar three-wave correction structure to the standard one, which can be wave 2 as part of a new upward trend section. Yesterday I assumed that if this assumption is correct, then the rise in the Euro/Dollar quotes may resume immediately. This rise has begun today. The only thing that is a little confusing is the sheer weakness of the alleged wave 2. But, as I said, three waves are visible inside it, so from the point of view of the internal structure, everything is fine. Thus, at the moment there is no reason to assume that the current wave counting is incorrect and will require corrections. The internal wave structure of wave 1 has taken on a rather extended and incomprehensible internal form, but the main thing is that everything is clear at a higher level. A successful attempt to break through the 38.2% Fibonacci level will indicate that the markets are ready for new purchases of the euro.
The activity of the markets was not too high yesterday, but today the instrument has already managed to add about 80 basis points. The news background on Wednesday was quite interesting, but the markets themselves did not consider it as such, which reacted with movements of 20-30 points to each report or event. Of all yesterday's reports, the ISM index for the US services sector really deserved attention, which turned out to be only slightly lower than market expectations. Also yesterday, there were speeches by three representatives of the Fed. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said monetary policy will remain extremely soft for a period of time. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said inflation will show high levels this spring, but the US economy is now in an imbalanced state. therefore, high inflation in a short period of time should not lead to a tightening of monetary policy. And Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that the US labor market remains not in the best condition, although it is returning to pre-crisis levels, but still does not meet the expectations of the Fed, therefore, it is impossible to reduce the stimulus program at this time. A report on retail trade in the European Union was released today. In March, the figure rose 2.7% month-on-month, higher than market expectations. However, the demand for the euro rose early in the morning, clearly not because of this report. Christine Lagarde's speech at this moment did not affect the state of the markets and the Euro/Dollar instrument.
Based on the analysis, I still expect the construction of an upward trend. At this time, the construction of corrective wave 2 or b could already be completed. Thus, I recommend buying the instrument now, again with targets located near the 23rd figure and above, counting on the formation of a wave 3 or c. There are no reasons to revise the current wave counting yet.
The wave counting of the upward trend is still quite complete, in a five-wave form, and is not going to get complicated yet. But the part of the trend, which began its construction immediately after it, took on a corrective and fully completed form. If the current wave counting is correct, then the construction of a new upward trend has begun and its first wave has just been completed.
