30.06.202112:54 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: plan for the US session on June 30 (analysis of morning deals).

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

Another lack of interest of traders in the European currency, even against the background of such important fundamental data as inflation in the eurozone, continues to surprise traders. The market is slowly but surely moving to the area of the monthly minimum, and all the emphasis in the second half of the day will need to be placed on the previous support levels, which we did not reach during the European session.

Exchange Rates 30.06.2021 analysis

The focus during the American session will be placed on data on employment in the private sector from ADP. If the indicator exceeds economists' forecasts, the pressure on the euro may increase, and we will see the pair move to the area of the monthly minimum. However, before that, buyers will try to protect the support of 1.1880, which was emphasized in the first half of the day. The formation of a false breakdown forms a signal to open long positions based on the growth of EUR/USD in the area of the middle of the side channel 1.1925. You can also count on a breakdown of this level. However, I recommend opening long positions to continue the euro's growth only after its top-down test, which forms an additional buy signal to return the pair to a larger resistance of 1.1974, where I recommend fixing the profits. The next target will be the area of 1.2032. In the case of weak buyer activity around 1.1880 and strong data on the US labor market, it is best not to rush into purchases. I advise you to wait for the support update of 1.1850. It is possible to open long positions in EUR/USD immediately for a rebound only from a new monthly low in the area of 1.1805, based on an upward correction of 15-20 points within the day.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

Sellers still have an important task to break through the support of 1.1880, below which they failed to gain a foothold yesterday. A good report on the growth of the number of people employed in the US private sector will lead to implementing such a scenario. A test of the area of 1.1180 from the bottom up will form a strong signal to open short positions in the continuation of the bear market with the aim of further falling EUR/USD to the lows of 1.1850. A more distant target will be the area of 1.1805, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the euro rises in the second half of the day, an equally important task for sellers will be to protect the resistance of 1.1925. Only the formation of a false breakout forms an entry point into short positions. In the absence of sellers' activity, it is best to postpone short positions until the test of the upper border of the side channel 1.1974, where you can immediately sell the pair for a rebound based on a downward correction of 15-20 points. The next major resistance for sale is at the maximum of 1.2032.

Exchange Rates 30.06.2021 analysis

Let me remind you that there were significant changes in the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for June 22: long positions sharply decreased, and short ones increased. Such changes occurred after the Federal Reserve's meeting on interest rates. Let me remind you that during the last meeting, the central bank made the first hints about an earlier increase in interest rates. Some Fed members expect this kind of change as early as 2022. It suggests that the regulator may begin to wind down its bond purchase program in the near future, strengthening the position of the US dollar on the world stage even more. However, the more the European currency falls in the near future, the higher the demand for it will be in anticipation of such measures from the European Central Bank, which has recently been acting on the example of the Fed and with a slight delay. This week, several important fundamental reports on the US labor market will be published. There will also be many speeches by the heads of the world's central banks that will help traders decide on the future course of monetary policy. Most likely, the trend for strengthening the US dollar will continue this week. However, it will be more and more difficult for euro sellers to push the pair down. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions decreased from 210,816 to 207,863, while short non-commercial positions increased from 92,630 to 118,806. It should be understood that the latest data on activity in the euro manufacturing sector and the service sector indicated that the eurozone economy is aimed at strong growth in the summer, which will necessarily affect the prospects for its recovery after the coronavirus pandemic. It is the key to a medium-term upward trend in the European currency. Moreover, the total non-commercial net position decreased from the level of 118,186 to the level of 89,057. The weekly closing price declined from the level of 1.2121 to the level of 1.1912.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 daily moving averages, indicating pressure on the euro.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

The volatility is low, which does not give signals for entering the market.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet specific requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

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