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15.07.2021 01:16 PM
EUR/USD: plan for the US session on July 15 (analysis of morning deals).

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

In the first half of the day, I paid attention and focused on the resistance of 1.1838. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened. We see how the bulls are making an attempt to break through and consolidate above the resistance of 1.1838, but the upward trend does not continue. As a result, a false breakdown and a signal to sell the euro are formed. But the active actions of the sellers were also not enough, and after a while, the bulls again made an unsuccessful attempt to grow above the level of 1.1838, once again forming a signal to open short positions.

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For the second half of the day, the technical picture in the pair has completely changed. While there is a signal to sell the euro from the European session, and trading is conducted below the resistance of 1.1849, we can expect a further decline in the euro to the support area of 1.1822. Data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States are scheduled for the second half of the day, which may strengthen the position of the US dollar if the indicator turns out to be better than economists' forecasts. Don't forget about the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Most likely, his speech is unlikely to be any different from yesterday. In this situation, the initial task of the bulls is to form a false breakdown in the support area of 1.1822, just below which the moving averages were playing on the buyers' side. The bulls will also place an equally important emphasis on the breakout of the resistance of 1.1849. From top to bottom, the test of this level forms a new entry point into long positions to restore the euro to the maximum of 1.1874, where I recommend fixing the profits. A more distant target will be the level of 1.1893. If the pressure on EUR/USD returns in the afternoon, and the bulls do not show themselves in the area of 1.1822, it is best not to rush with purchases. The optimal scenario will be the formation of a false breakdown in the area of 1.1800. It is possible to buy a pair immediately for a rebound, expecting a reverse upward movement of 15-20 points within the day only from a larger minimum of 1.1777.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

The bears are not really in a hurry to return to the market, although they have coped with the tasks set for the first half of the day. As noted above, the signal to sell the euro is valid. In the case of EUR/USD growth after the US labor market data, only the formation of a false breakdown at the level of 1.1849 forms a new good signal to open short positions, counting on the pair's fall to the support of 1.1822. A breakout and a test of this level from the bottom up will form an additional entry point into short positions with a longer-range goal in the area of 1.1800, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the case of EUR/USD growth during the US session after the Fed chairman's speech and the lack of sellers' activity at the level of 1.1849, it is best to postpone sales until the test of a larger resistance of 1.1874, which coincides with this week's maximum. You can immediately sell the pair for a rebound based on a downward correction of 15-20 points. The next major level for sales is seen in the area of 1.1893.

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Let me remind you that in the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for July 6, it was possible to observe a reduction in the overall positive net position due to the sharp growth of short positions. This balance of forces does not consider the growth of the pair, which was observed at the end of last week after the European Central Bank raised its inflation target to 2.0% and admitted that it would allow exceeding the target for some time in the future. It turned out to be enough for euro buyers to start building up long positions. Now the focus will be on the meeting of the European regulator, which will be held on July 22, and at which changes in monetary policy will be announced. Until then, any decline in the European currency will be considered a good reason to increase long positions. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased from 209,058 to the level of 212,998, while short non-commercial positions increased from 121,912 to the level of 135,808. This week, there are no important fundamental statistics on the eurozone. Thus, the focus will be shifted to inflation in the US and retail sales volume. The further direction of the market depends on these indicators. But whatever they are, the key to the growth of the European currency is the economic recovery in the summer, so I recommend betting on the growth of risky assets. The total non-commercial net position decreased from the level of 87,146 to the level of 77,190. The weekly closing price fell from 1.1928 to the level of 1.1862.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted just above the 30 and 50 daily moving averages. However, this does not give euro buyers an advantage yet.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

A break of the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1822 will increase the pressure on the euro. A burst of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1849 will lead to a new wave of growth of the pair.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet specific requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
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