23.10.2020: Ruble’s rise may be short-lived (Brent, USD/RUB)

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The oil is set to finish this week in negative territory. The ruble may come under pressure by the end of the session. High market volatility is caused by the rapid coronavirus spread, prospects of the US stimulus package, and the upcoming US presidential election.
The number of new coronavirus cases in Europe has hit new record highs which may lead to extended restrictive measures in the region. This, in turn, suggests increasing pressure on energy demand. Besides, there is no progress in stimulus talks in the US. The US lawmakers are unlikely to pass the new relief package before the election.
The key event on Thursday was the presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Analysts cannot say for sure who of them inspired the rising US stock market. However, today the uptrend may soon finish, and a correctional decline will prevail in the market.
Yesterday, oil prices gained support from the statement made by the President of Russia. Vladimir Putin indicated his willingness to extend record supply cuts within the OPEC+ deal. In the morning trade, this driver lost its steam, and both oil benchmarks slipped to the downside.
Brent crude futures with the nearest expiration were down by 0.3% and traded at 42 dollars 30 cents per barrel. Meanwhile, WTI futures for December were holding firmly above 40 dollars per barrel. On Thursday, oil gained almost 1.5%.
The macroeconomic data from Asia serves as a bullish factor for crude prices. Thus, improved economic indicators from China, India and other countries may signal a possible increase in global fuel demand. However, despite the current positive trend, oil prices will most likely stay under pressure. Fuel demand is still weak, while Libya continues to ramp up its oil output. So, Brent can hardly leave the range between 42.00 and 43.00 dollars per barrel.
The dollar/ruble pair has started a short-term downtrend. Yet, the ruble has no strong reasons to change its current trajectory. In the early session, the ruble moved slightly lower against the US dollar, but then regained ground and broke above the level of 76.50. In the course of the day, the dollar/ruble pair is expected to trade in the range between 76.00 and 77.00.
On Friday, investors may pay attention to the Bank of Russian policy meeting. With 100% probability, the key rate will remain unchanged, so marktes will be looking for other signals from the regulator. In particular, traders will focus on the comments about possible monetary policy changes at the next meetings. The ruble may also weaken due to the unstable situation in the energy market. However, the upcoming peak of tax payments in Russia may easily offset this negative factor.
Later in the day, the pair’s trajectory will be mostly determined by the global market sentiment. Negative background may cause a fall in the Russian currency. In this case, the US dollar will head for the level of 77 and above.


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