4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 47p - 36p - 58p - 34p - 38p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 43p (57p).

The EUR/USD currency pair stopped declining on Wednesday, January 23 and is currently just moving sideways. If earlier we noted weak volatility, but at the same time maintaining a downward bias, now the pair has moved to a full flat. What else can I say about this? No major macroeconomic reports from Europe or the United States have been received to date. Thus, the "shutdown" in America continues, and despite the fact that this is the longest "shutdown" in history, and all state employees have not received wages for months, paired with euro currency, the dollar as a whole becomes more expensive. Paradox. Even the FBI warned that the "shutdown" will adversely affect the economy of the United States. Last year, we assumed that something like this could happen, as Trump is unlikely to be satisfied with such a strong dollar and the lack of support from the Federal Reserve in this matter. Thus, it is possible that the government partly called upon the "shutdown" to reduce the demand for the US currency. However, paired with the European currency, this has not yet been achieved. From a technical point of view, now there is a correction, which was very difficult to identify, as the MACD indicator has long been directed upward, not responding to the minimal price reductions. Formally, short positions remain relevant, but the average volatility for the last 5 days is about 40 points, which greatly complicates the process of trading in any direction.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair started to adjust. Thus, sell orders will be relevant again after the MACD indicator is turning down with the target of 1.1324, however, we recommend waiting for the current flat to complete.

Buy orders will formally become actual small lots not earlier than overcoming the price above the critical line with the first target of 1,1409, but it is also recommended to wait for the completion of the flat.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of illustration:

Ichimoku Indicator:

Tenkan-sen-red line.

Kijun-sen – blue line.

Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.

Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.

Chikou span – green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.