For the previous trading day, the euro / dollar currency pair showed a high volatility of 62 points. As a result, the quote went down to the predicted level. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the accumulation phase of 1.1245 / 1.1280 resulted in a layer of short positions, overcoming the lower boundary and directing us to the priority point 1.1180, the area of the stop on the history (July 9; June 18). As discussed in a previous review, traders occupied a waiting position, at the moment of accumulation, tracking clear breakdowns of existing borders, which they got as a result. Downward positions were opened, and the past movement made it possible to take the first piece of profit from the market. Considering the trading chart in general terms (daily timeframe), we see that the tact of the impulse is in the active phase, for the full recovery of the verbal downward trend, we need to overcome the values of 1.1180 --- 1.1100.

The news background for the previous day contained data on retail sales in the United States, where, as expected, it accelerated from 2.9% to 3.4% with a forecast of 3.0%. The main factor driving the growth of the dollar against the euro was played, of course, by another factor, and it's none other than, Brexit. The information background once again stirred up the sensation of the "divorce" process. This time, everyone remembered that nothing had been decided yet, and the output according to the plan was as of October 31 of the current year. The side of the English knights in the persona of the candidates for the post of Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt declares that the European Union must make concessions. Although we recall that the head of the EC Jean-Claude Juncker has repeatedly stated that everything has already been decided and will not make concessions, but it is not worth scaring with tough Brexit, the EU is ready for it. At the same time, European officials are preparing for discussions on Brexit which will become more hostile under the new British government. To be more precise, the European Union is preparing for the prospect that Boris Johnson will become the Prime Minister, whom the EU considers to be an unreliable populist.

So we understand the reason for yesterday's jump, hysteria and speculations led to the fact that the pound has updated at least in the current year, and the euro on the general background simultaneously flew down.

Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on inflation in European Union, where, according to forecasts, 1.2% is expected to remain unchanged. In the afternoon, data will be released on the construction sector of the United States, where, in principle, unchanged. Particular attention is paid to the information background, in the case of a regular release, criticism, or simply statements regarding Brexit.

United States 12:30 UTC+00 - Number of building permits issued (June): Prev. 1.299M ---> Forecast 1,300M

United States 12:30 UTC+00 - The volume of construction of new homes (June): Prev. 1.269M ---> Forecast of 1.261M

Further development

Analyzing the current trading chart, we see the quotation felt a foothold within the level of 1.1180, which was quite expected. Traders, in turn, ensuring against a rebound, produced a partial fixation of previously received profits, pushing restrictive orders to the breakeven zone. Rolling back - stagnation is certainly possible, but traders do not miss out on the option of a further inertial move, thus waiting for clear fixations lower than 1.1180.

Based on the available information, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider:

- Positions for purchase are considered in case of price fixing higher than 1.1225.

- Positions for sale, if we still do not have, or are considering topping up, then it is worth waiting for a fixation moment lower than 1.1180.

Indicator Analysis

Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators in the short term have changed from descending to ascending against the background of a slowdown within the level. Intraday and mid-term outlook maintain a downward interest.

Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year

Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.

(July 17 was based on the time of publication of the article)

The current time volatility is 17 points. In the case of a slowdown within a level, volatility may be low. In case of continuation of the inertial course and breakdown of the value of 1.1180, the volatility may increase.

Key levels

Zones of resistance: 1.1300 **; 1.1450; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100

Support areas: 1.1180 *; 1.1112; 1.1080 *; 1.1000 ***; 1,0850 **

* Periodic level

** Range Level

*** Psychological level

**** The article is based on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustment.