10.04.202010:04 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Dollar will continue to decline next week (the continuation of growth of AUD/USD pair and decline in USD/CAD pair are expected)

Long-term review

The main world trading floors are closed today due to the weekend of the pre-Easter, Good Friday of the Catholic Easter.

On Thursday, markets were anxiously waiting for the result of the video negotiation between Russia and OPEC on the issue of regulating crude oil prices through a coordinated reduction in black gold production. At first, the markets reacted to the launched "duck" from Reuters, which is an agreement to reduce the total daily oil production by 20 million barrels. This caused a sharp increase in quotes, as the market kept in mind the possibility of cutting them only by 10 million barrels. However, after it became known that the planned volume of 10 million barrels would actually be in effect, and that it will operate for only two months in May and June, and then reduced to 8 million barrels by the end of this year, the prices declined, which, in fact, is logical, since markets always live by expectations.

The trading of oil futures is not held today, but despite the absence of a significant number of investors, and therefore, low activity in the currency market, commodity and commodity currencies continue to increase smoothly.

On the other hand, investors hope that the COVID-19 pandemic will begin to decline in Europe and the USA by the end of this month, which means that the economic activity, accompanied by increased demand on commodity and raw material assets will begin to increase in the same way as it is happening in China.

Positivity for these currencies will be a decline in the US dollar's interest as a safe haven against the backdrop of widespread support from the Fed, which additional measures amount to $ 2.3 trillion.

Given the mood of the markets, the natural reduction in the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the recovery in demand and the prospective weakness of the dollar, we believe that its weakening next week, primarily against commodity and commodity currencies, will continue.

Forecast of the day:

The AUD/USD pair is trading above the level of 0.6340. We believe it is possible to buy it with a likely local growth to the level of 0.6460.

The USD/CAD pair is consolidating above the level of 1.3935. The continuation of rising oil prices and breaking through the price level of 1.3935 will lead to pair decline to the level of 1.3800.

Exchange Rates 10.04.2020 analysis

Exchange Rates 10.04.2020 analysis

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Pati Gani,
Chuyên gia phân tích
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