Everything suddenly went wrong. Investors even took some time to comprehend the published macroeconomic data. So the reaction followed with a slight delay. But there was something to think about, since all forecasts exclusively indicated that the current economic downturn could only be compared with the Great Depression. But apparently, with these comparisons you have to wait a bit. Perhaps, in general, it can do without it.

The thing is that US data turned out to be significantly better than forecasts. Moreover, the previous value of the decline in retail sales was revised for the better, from -21.6% to -19.9%. Well, at the end of May, these same rates of decline did not accelerate to -24.6%, but slowed to -6.1%. And this is many times better than forecasts. The previous result of industrial production was revised for the worse, from -15.0% to -16.2%. Due to this, the decline in industrial production slowed down to -15.3%. Without revision, they would accelerate. At the same time, they expected the recession to deepen to -18.0%, which should have been the worst result since the end of World War II. But nothing happened.

Industrial Production (United States):

We are waiting for interesting macroeconomic data from Europe to be released today, and if the forecasts for them are confirmed, then the single European currency will continue to gradual weaken. Indeed, inflation could decline from 0.3% to 0.1%. And do not forget that some countries of the euro area are already in full deflation. So the situation is extremely tense. However, this will not be the main factor, since preliminary data have shown a slowdown in inflation, and this unpleasant fact has already been largely taken into account by the market. An additional negative factor will be construction, the volume of which should be reduced by another 34.2%. And this despite the fact that in the previous month, construction was already reduced by 15.4%. And if the forecasts are confirmed, then this will be the deepest decline in the construction industry in the euro area.

Scope of construction (Europe):

But the United States is reporting on construction today, and here forecasts are diametrically opposite. The fact is that the volume of construction of new houses should increase by 17.8%. Moreover, the number of issued building permits could increase by 12.4%. So we see that all forecasts are exclusively negative in Europe, while it is positive in the United States.

New Home Construction (United States):

From the point of view of technical analysis, we see high activity from the side of short positions, which returned the quote to the support area of the past week 1.1250 (+/- 20 points). In fact, another round of oscillation was obtained within the variable range of 1.1215/1.1400, which has been taking place on the market for one and a half weeks already. Regarding volatility, it can be noted that the activity of market participants has steadily exceeded the average daily indicator for two weeks.

In terms of a general review of the trading chart, the daily period, it is worth highlighting the rapid inertial course of May 26, where a slowdown is currently occurring, expressed in a variable range.

It can be assumed that against the background of local oversold, an upward trend may occur if the price is recorded above 1.1280, which will lead the quote to the 1.1300/1.1320 area. An alternative scenario is considering a more significant deceleration relative to having coordinates of 1.1230/1.1280.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments relative to hourly periods indicate a signal to sell due to a rapid downward movement and price taking within the range of 1.1250. At the same time, daily intervals are still focused on an earlier inertial course, providing a buy signal.