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10.07.2020 10:36 AM
EUR/USD. July 10. COT report. The US Treasury Secretary provided unexpected assistance to the dollar. Bull traders should hold the trend line to resume growth

EUR/USD – 1H.

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Hello, traders! On July 9, the euro/dollar pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and performed a 100-point drop to the ascending trend line, which bear traders tried to pass at least 5 times and each time the case ended with a rebound. Thus, this time, the rebound of quotes from the trend line will work in favor of the euro currency and the resumption of growth within the "bullish" mood of traders, which has been observed in recent weeks. Closing the pair's rate below the trend line will change the mood of traders to "bearish". Yesterday, there was not a single economic report, US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin spoke. The Finance Minister said that during July, Congress may approve a new package of assistance to the economy, which will include assistance to the unemployed and businesses affected by the crisis caused by the pandemic. However, Mnuchin also said that payments for unemployment benefits will be reduced and will become more "targeted", as many Americans lose the incentive to look for work and go to work, since sitting on unemployment benefits, they get no less money than working. According to Mnuchin, the draft of the new aid package is at the final stage of development.

EUR/USD – 4H.

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On the 4-hour chart, the quotes of the euro/dollar pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and began the process of falling towards the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1167). Thus, the next rebound of the pair's quotes from the level of 1.1347 worked in favor of the beginning of a new fall. At the same time, in the most long-term plan, the upward trend persists, as indicated by the upward trend line. Thus, the nearest target for bear traders is 1.1167, however, the fall may end a little higher than this level.

EUR/USD – Daily.

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On the daily chart, the euro/dollar pair performed another reversal in favor of the US currency and returned to the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1261). This level is not important, since the pair's quotes easily overcome it. Thus, closing under it or rebounding from it will not be a signal.

EUR/USD – Weekly.

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On the weekly chart, the euro/dollar pair rebounded from the lower line of the "narrowing triangle", which still allows traders to expect growth in the direction of the 1.1600 level (the upper line of the "triangle"). Several charts allow for possible growth in the direction of 1.1500 (1.1600).

Overview of fundamentals:

On July 9, the next weekly report on applications for unemployment benefits was released in America. The number of initial applications this time was 1.3 million, however, the total number of repeated applications for benefits began to decline and amounted to 18 million (until recently, this figure was equal to 20 million).

News calendar for the United States and the European Union:

On July 10, the information background will again be absent. However, now there is news that interests traders much more than the usual economic reports.

COT (Commitments of Traders) report:

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The latest COT report was released several days late due to Independence Day in the US. However, its figures were very interesting. A group of speculators during the reporting week strenuously got rid of long-contracts for the euro currency and increased short-contracts. This means that large traders do not believe in further growth of the European currency. At the same time, hedgers were actively getting rid of short contracts, but this information is less important, since it is the "Non-commercial" group that is considered the most important. Thus, I can conclude that the major players are not looking towards new purchases yet, and the rebound from the level of 1.1347 indirectly confirms that traders do not want to continue buying euros. In the past week, the US dollar has been rising and falling, so the new report, which will be released today, may show a small number of changes.

Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:

Today, I recommend buying the euro currency with the goal of 1.1496, if a close above the level of 1.1347 is made. However, I recommend that you be careful with your purchases, since yesterday's signal was false. I do not recommend rushing with sales of the pair yet. To do this, wait for the quotes to close below the trend line on the hourly chart.

Terms:

"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.

"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.

"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.

Samir Klishi,
Chuyên gia phân tích của InstaForex
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