Latest COT report and weekly outlook for EUR/USD

According to the COT report, open interest in the euro increased and amounted to 666412 (+8238). This time, another indicator confirms the increased interest in working with the euro, the number of reporting representatives increased to 301. The leading groups of major players managed to increase their net positions (Non-Commercial p.p. 190822 (+12246); Commercial p.p. 239413 (+4254); Dealer Intermediary ch.p 420231 (+1455)), keeping preferred directions. At the same time, it should be noted that the Commercials group, which is more closely connected with the real sectors of the economy, was mainly in a wait-and-see position, while participants from Non-Commercial were more active, preferring long positions. Nevertheless, the position retained the dominance of short deals (long 577240 - short 625831) following the results of the total report.

The main conclusion

It can be concluded that while the players keep their thoughts on declining, the opponent will seek to increase their positions. However, the return of the bearish initiative will continue the downward trend and allow the bearish traders to optimistically close September.

Technical picture

Technically, there is a downward movement. After accumulating the potential earlier, the bears managed to emerge victorious from the long confrontation observed above 1.1740 (monthly Senkou Span A). Now, this line combined with the weekly Tenkan and the daily cross, is forming a significant resistance. Bulls' attempt to implement a full-fledged correction has not yet led to a positive result.The main downward interest of bears is now reduced to getting out of the daily cloud, consolidating in the bearish zone and forming a new downward goal.

The euro/dollar pair is in an upward correction zone in the smaller time frames, which has rested against the resistance of the central pivot level (1.1643). A reliable consolidation above will allow us to rise to the resistance of the weekly long-term trend (1.1689), the loss of which could change the current balance of power. On the other hand, the recovery of low (1.1612) will allow the bears to continue the downward trend; in this case, the pivot points for the decline within the day will be the support levels of 1.1600 - 1.1570 - 1.1527.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (Classical), Moving Average (120)