The pair retested the levels it overcame and returned below the border of the all-time level of 1.2170. Bears' weakness might result in the appearance of consolidation instead of an active and effective continuation of the decline. In this case, the levels of the daily cross (1.2241 - 1.2204 - 1.2170) will provide attraction, strengthened by the historical level (1.2170). If this current attraction is broken through, it will open the way to the next support levels – weekly levels (1.2075 - 1.1984) and a daily cloud.
The previous corrective rise did not develop. The pair returned to the key levels, which are located at 1.2173 (central pivot level) and 1.2195 (weekly long-term trend) today. As a result, the bearish traders are in favor again. The support for the classic pivot levels (1.2123 - 1.2090 - 1.2040) act as pivot points for the resumption of the intraday decline. A consolidation above the key resistances (1.2173-95) and a reversal of the weekly long-term trend will help change the current balance of power in the hourly time frame. We can note the resistances of the classic pivot levels at 1.2206 - 1.2256 - 1.2289.
The expected Chinkou divergence in the daily time frame is formed with a minimum divergence of the highs, so this is more of a warning than a call to action. Currently, the bulls lack enough strength for a full and effective continuation of the trend. At the same time, the opponent needs confirmation and some additional incentive to turn the situation around.
The main pivot points remain in place today. On one hand, the resistances at 1.3703 - 1.3904 are important for the bulls, while on the other hand, overcoming the supports at 1.3577 - 1.3486 - 1.3418 - 1.3350 is important for the bears.
The pair in the hourly time frame is moving in the attraction zone of the central pivot level (1.3648) for quite some time. The loss of the level, a consolidation below the weekly long-term trend (1.3584) and a reversal of the moving average, will lead to a change in the balance of forces, providing advantages to the bears. In this case, further downward targets can be noted at the supports of the classic pivot levels (1.3559 and 1.3508). In turn, if we maintain the key resistances and update the high (1.3703), it will allow us to consider bullish prospects. They are located today at 1.3737 (R2) and 1.3775 (R3).
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (classical), Moving Average (120)
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