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28.09.2021 03:21 PM
GBP/USD: plan for the US session on September 28 (analysis of morning deals). The pound fell to new monthly lows.

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.3689 and recommended that you make decisions on entering the market from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened in the end. A breakout and a reverse test of this level from the bottom up led to the formation of an excellent entry point into short positions. As a result, the pound fell by more than 80 points, almost completely ignoring the lows of 1.3653 (where there was only a pause) and 1.3615. From a technical point of view, everything has changed now and the market is completely under the control of sellers. During the US session, we are waiting for another speech by representatives of the Federal Reserve System, who may touch on the topic of monetary policy and further tip the scales in favor of buyers of the US dollar - this will put additional pressure on the GBP/USD pair and lead to a test of the 1.3595 minimum, which buyers are now counting on. Only the formation of a false breakdown on it forms a signal to open long positions against such a large bear market, which I would not recommend doing, since it is not necessary to count on growth in these conditions. An equally important task for buyers will be a breakthrough and a reverse test from the level of 1.3635, which was formed in the first half of the day. Such a scenario will form a new entry point for long positions in the expectation of a further upward correction to the resistance of 1.3674, above which the moving averages are located, playing on the sellers' side. I recommend fixing the profit there. A more distant target will be the 1.3715 area. If the pressure on GBP/USD returns during the US session, and the bulls do not show anything in the resistance area of 1.3595, it is best to shift their attention to protecting the new support of 1.3564. The formation of a false breakdown will be a signal to open long positions. If the bears turn out to be, the optimal scenario will be buying the pound from the level of 1.3530, or even lower - around 1.3506, counting on a rebound of 15-20 points within the day.

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To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The sellers of the British pound coped with their task and failed the lower border of the triangle, which I spoke about in more detail in my morning forecast. It led to the demolition of several stop orders and a larger drop in the pound. The initial task of the bears will be to protect the resistance of 1.3635, to which the pair can recover after the speech of the Fed representatives. Only the formation of a false breakdown at this level in the second half of the day will return the pressure on the pound, which will again push it to the minimum of 1.3595, which apparently will not stand for a long time under the pressure of sellers. A breakout and a test of this area from the bottom up will form an additional entry point into short positions, which will bring GBP/USD even lower - to 1.3564, and then to a minimum of 1.3530. It will be possible to talk about such a strong bear market in the case of hawkish statements by representatives of the Federal Reserve System on the topic of tightening monetary policy. The farthest target for today will be the area of 1.3506. In the absence of active actions of bears around 1.3635, I advise you to postpone sales to a large resistance of 1.3674. I also recommend opening short positions only if a false breakdown is formed. You can sell GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from the maximum in the area of 1.3715, counting on a downward correction of 25-30 points within the day.

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The COT reports (Commitment of Traders) for September 21 recorded both a sharp increase in short ones and an increase in those who bet on the further growth of the pound. The Bank of England's monetary policy meeting, which took place last week, significantly affected the mood of buyers of risky assets. The decision to raise rates in November this year will support the buyers of the pound in any serious downward corrections of the pair, so it is best to bet on the growth of GBP/USD in the medium term. The deterioration of the situation with inflation may force the Bank of England to act more aggressively, which is also an additional signal to buy the pound. The only problem that stands in the way of the bulls is the Federal Reserve System, although it is not going to raise interest rates yet. The lower the pound falls, the more active buyers of risky assets will be, betting on real changes in the monetary policy of the Bank of England in the future. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased from the level of 44,161 to the level of 51,910, while short non-commercial positions jumped almost one and a half times - from the level of 39,371 to the level of 52,128, which led to a complete capitulation of the advantage of buyers in the market and an advantage in the direction of sellers of the pound. As a result, the non-commercial net position regained its negative value and fell from the level of 4,790 to the level of -218. The closing price of GBP/USD last week fell from 1.3837 to 1.3662.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 daily averages, which indicates the bearish nature of the market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

If the pound recovers, the average border of the indicator in the area of 1.3674 will act as a resistance.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
  • Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence/divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
Miroslaw Bawulski,
Chuyên gia phân tích của InstaForex
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