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25.06.2019: Trump imposes sanctions on Iranian officials. Ruble holds below 63 (Brent, RUB, USD)

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Escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran boosted a rally on the oil market. There is a risk that the conflict may evolve into a military clash.
Yesterday Donald Trump announced imposition of sanctions on supreme leader Ali Khamenei and some other high-rank officials. The US president reiterated that Washington did not intend to unleash a war against Iran and was ready to settle the conflict by diplomatic means. However, the negotiations may start only after Iran creates appropriate conditions for it.
The International Energy Administration is concerned about the Middle East tensions and stands ready to act in case of disruption in supplies. IEA executive director Fatih Birol said it on Monday. He noted that the intensifying tension in relations between the United States and Iran in the Middle East could have had a greater impact on oil prices were it not for the increasing output of shale oil in the United States. This increase limits a rise in oil prices.
Early this week, oil futures were trading mixed. As a result, the WTI-Brent spread narrowed to 7 dollars per barrel, thus nearing the lowest level since August 2018. The American oil was trading sideways while the North Sea crude benchmark corrected its movement. Brent prices inched down to 64.60 dollars per barrel.
At the same time, the G20 summit in Osaka is on tap. On June 28 and 29, leaders of the United States and China are expected to meet in order to discuss the trade discords and try to start negotiations on the agreement that failed to be reached in April. Market participants can be quite sensitive to public statements of the both sides as the summit is drawing closer.
Trade wars are having a great impact on the oil market this year. Some positive shifts in the negotiations may provide support to the commodity.
After the G20 summit, in early July, another key event will take place. The OPEC+ meeting will be held. The participants of it will discuss a possibility of extending the output cuts deal for the next half a year. Most countries support prolongation of the deal, but some OPEC members have not expressed their opinion yet. By the way, most experts doubt that the deal will be extended amid the brewing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East.
The ruble saw a positive start of the week. Yesterday the Russian currency hit the highest level since August last year against the US dollar. The American currency is still unable to gain momentum after the Fed’s decision to take a milder approach. At the same time, the currencies of developing countries are weaker due to high uncertainty over the global economic outlook and escalation of the conflict with Iran.
Meanwhile, the Russian ruble seems to be resilient to these headwinds. It remains the best-performing currency among other 36 major currencies year to date.
The dollar-ruble pair returned to the zone below 63, thus reinforcing the greenback’s slide. No strong support levels are seen as for now, so the Russian currency is set to extend gains.
Further on, the tax period in Russia provides support to the national currency. We keep close tabs on the market developments. Stay tuned!

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