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12.08.2020 02:33 PM
Will US dollar outwit investors?

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For the first time in a long period, the number of hospitalizations in the US due to Covid-19 fell to its lowest level in a month. At the same time, Donald Trump said that he considered a reduction in the capital gains tax. This news immediately affected the US dollar, which fell again after a slight increase.

The US dollar index fell by 0.1% against a basket of six currencies. The rise in oil prices contributed to the growth of the Norwegian krone and the Canadian dollar.

The euro rose by 0.3% against the US dollar to 1.1769. While USD/CAD rate reduced by 0.3% to 1.3310. Strategist Sean Osborne argues that short positions make the US dollar weak and vulnerable. He also believes that the dollar's recovery will be slow, so he advises selling it on the rise.

USD/JPY rose by 0.5% to hit 106.44. This is the highest level since August 3. The growth of the pair is driven by the increase in the yield of US bonds.

Let us remember, that the US dollar has been declining since March, when the Fed promised to do everything possible to save the markets and the US economy. Wall Street investment banks believe that the fall of the global currency will continue for a long time. AMP chief analyst Nader Naimi said that a huge number of people are betting on the dollar's depreciation. He warns that the rebound may start at any time.

Today, none of a single hedge fund expects a revival of long-term growth in the US currency, but many see the risks of a short-term rebound.

George Buburas, chief analyst at K2 Asset Management, also believes that a sharp short-term rise in the US dollar may soon happen. According to him, in this case, other currencies and assets of developing countries will be severely affected. For example, this can happen if the conflict between the United States and China develops further.

Moreover, it has historically been noted that on the eve of the last seven presidential elections in the United States, the dollar rose from August to November by about 3%.

Experts warn that at any moment a rapid correction of the American currency may begin, provoked by any event. It could be a sharp recovery in the US economy or US presidential elections.

Kate Smirnova,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
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