Today, all market attention will be drawn to the publication of data on employment in the US for the month of July.

According to the forecast by Bloomberg agency in July, the number of new jobs increased by 178,000 and the unemployment rate decreased from 4.4% to 4.3%. The total possible range of new jobs is estimated from 144,000 to 220,000 and the unemployment rate itself is from 4.3% to 4.4%. In June, the number of new jobs increased to 222,000, which was higher than all expectations and forecasts and unemployment increased to 4.4% from 4.3%.

Considering in general the output of potentially strong data, we do not expect their appreciable impact on the US dollar rate, although locally they can contribute to its rise. The reason for this pessimism is based primarily on two important negative factors for the dollar. The political turbulence in the United States, which is a condition for uncertain economic prospects, and even the very presidency of D. Trump, as well as inhibition of inflation as the main condition for the still weakly expected third increase in the Fed Rates until the end of this year. And one more reason that puts pressure on the dollar, does not refer specifically to him, but is external. This is the beginning of a review by some central banks of their monetary rates in the direction of tightening.

Against this background, investors are waiting for the data to be released earlier, if they were positive. It pushed the US currency significantly higher, but now the situation is different and the overall pessimism about it is still very high. So, we believe that if it is stronger than forecasts, it is supporting the dollar, which will probably be sold for growth.

We have previously indicated that we are waiting until the end of summer to maintain the overall negative climate for the dollar. The situation can seriously change, probably, at the September meeting of the Federal Reserve will finally announce the date of the beginning of the reduction of the balance sheet and will name the pace and scope of this event.

Forecast of the day:

The GBP/USD pair is consolidating below 1.3150 in anticipation of publication of data on employment in the US. If they prove to be strong, it is worth assuming a local price drop to 1.3060.

The USD/CAD pair is trading above the level of 1.2540. Also, the pair is likely to grow locally to 1.2640 on strong employment figures in the US. An additional supporting factor for the pair is the possible resumption of correction of prices for crude oil.