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11.08.2017 10:04 AM
Commodity currencies under serious pressure

The Australian dollar and other commodity currencies remain under pressure in tandem with the US dollar, as many investors prefer to avoid risky assets.

The pressure on the Australian dollar today was observed after the speech of the Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, Philip Lowe, who said that interest rates support employment, and also contribute to rising inflation. The current strengthening of the Australian dollar puts pressure on economic growth and further inflation prospects. The strengthening the Australian dollar also means lower import prices, Lowe said.

As for the immediate prospects for inflation, the governor of the RBA expects its gradual growth, and a lower rate of the Australian dollar would help it.

Philip Lowe also pointed out that labor market conditions vary across the country, but overall employment growth has become noticeably stronger in recent months. In his view, the steady unemployment rate allowed the RBA to be more patient with regard to monetary policy.

In conclusion, the governor of the RBA supported traders who are betting on the further growth of the Australian dollar by saying that the next change in interest rates is likely to be their increase, but before the change in monetary policy is still quite far.

As for the technical picture of the AUD/USD pair, there is a clear downward pressure on the trading instrument. The breakthrough of the lower border of the channel of 0.7865 could lead to an even larger sale of the Australian dollar in case of good data on inflation in the US, which are expected today. The main goal of the sellers in this case will be a new level of support of 0.7805 and 0.7745.

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The Canadian dollar continued to decline against the US dollar, as traders avoid risky assets. The main reason for this pressure is the growing tension between the US and the North Korea, which forces investors to purchase safe havens. Yesterday's drop in oil prices by more than 2% also strengthens the pressure on the Canadian dollar.

If on Wednesday the prices for black gold still held at the weekly highs around $ 50 by the WTI brand, then yesterday optimism among investors regarding the reduction of excess oil reserves in the US was asleep. The conversations around the growth of OPEC production have again come to the fore, which creates further difficulties in the growth of oil quotations.

I would also like to draw attention to data on the growth of public spending in China, which slowed in July this year, unlike the United States. According to the Ministry of Finance, in July the budget expenditures amounted to 1.35 trillion yuan. For example, in June, the annual growth was 19.1%.

Jakub Novak,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2026
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