EUR/USD, GBP/USD
Thursday was marked by four significant events: talks about the resignation of the director of the National Economic Council Gary Cohn- the most likely candidate for the replacement of Janet Yellen, the publication of the minutes from the last ECB meeting, in which concern was noted about the high euro exchange rate and the slowdown in inflation. Euro traded with a range of 60 points, but by the end of the day showed a decrease of 42 points. Stock markets could not recover and S&P500 closed the day at -1.54%. The fear of investors is caused by the idea that, following Cohn, the remaining business representatives will leave the Trump team, and since Trump has already dissolved two advisory councils, there can be no chance of any reforms. But, on the other hand, in the "liquidation" of the advisory councils by the president, we see a dispute with representatives of the Democratic Party and in this this round, Trump clearly won. Also in Spain, a terrorist act occurred, which resulted in the death of 13 people and about 100 injured. The Spanish stock index IBEX 35 fell by 0.95%. And the fourth event is a military clash in the Himalayan mountains of Chinese and Indian military troops in disputed territories. The consequences are not reported. All these events uniquely affect the strengthening of the dollar.
The trade balance of the euro area and retail sales in the UK showed growth. In the US, there is also positive trend in industrial production. Trade balance increased from 19.0 billion euros to 22.3 billion euros. British retail sales added 0.3% in July. Industrial production in the US in the July estimate increased by 0.2% (against the forecast of 0.3%), while the capacity utilization rate increased from 76.6% to 76.7%. A good sign of further improvement in the labor market was data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits - 232, 000 versus the 244,000 a week earlier and the lowest value since March. Fed official R. Kaplan confirmed the "early" start of the Fed's reduction, but warned against a rapid rate hike.
Today, the euro zone's balance of payments for June will be published. The forecast for it, in contrast to yesterday's trade balance, indicates a decline from 30.1 billion euros to 27.3 billion euros. In the US, the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan is expected to increase from 93.4 to 94.0 in the preliminary estimate for August.
Further reduction of counter-dollar currencies is expected: the euro to 1.1640 and further to 1.1560, the pound sterling to the range of 1.2735/55.
AUD/USD
After the eventful developments yesterday, the Australian dollar did not make any movements, as soon as it dropped after the increase of 100 points on Wednesday. The employment data showed a moderate improvement. The unemployment rate in July remained at 5.6%, 27,900 jobs were created, the proportion of economically active population increased from 65.0% to 65.1%. Iron ore prices went up by 3.3%, to 74.15 dollars per ton. And after the first reaction of the "Aussie" which rose by 40 points, the day was finished down by 40 points.
It was also the experience on the Asian stock markets today: Nikkei 225 ended -1.22%, S&P /ASX200 -0.71%, China A50 -0.12%. Copper declined by 0.13%, but other non-ferrous metals are growing (tin 0.14%, nickel 0.52%). Oil has grown, but insignificantly.
As said earlier, the Australian dollar now does not have its independent ideas or reasons for independent movement in any direction. In the medium term, it remains poised to follow the general movement of the US dollar. The AUD / USD is expected in the range of 0.7710/30.
