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19.02.2018 09:48 AM
There is no need to rush into buying the euro

The euro fell sharply against the US dollar on Friday's trading, amid good data on the US economy, which confidently indicate that the US Federal Reserve does not have as many options as it might seem.

According to the report of the US Department of Labor, the import price index rose in January this year. And it is because of a rise in the price of the goods imported into the country. The prices for imports in January rose by 1% compared to the previous month, while economists expected that the price increase would be 0.7%.

A serious increase was shown by prices for imported oil and oil products, where growth was 4.3% compared to December. Excluding oil, import prices in January rose by only 0.5%.

The preliminary data showed an improvement in consumer sentiment in the US in February this year. According to outstripping data from the University of Michigan, the US consumer sentiment index rose to 99.9 in February this year against 95.7 points in January. Economists had expected a preliminary index of 95.0 points.

As noted by economists at the University of Michigan, the growth of consumer income leveled the decline in the stock markets. Also, people were well-versed in the prospects for US tax reform.

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As for the technical picture of the EUR / USD pair, the pressure on the euro may remain at the beginning of this week. All attention will be focused on the support area of 1.2390. The breakthrough of which will lead to continued sales of risky assets with a yield of 1.2350 and 1.2320, where large players can return to the market once again.

In the case of growth above the level of 1.2460, the demand for the euro may also increase, which will lead to the renewal of last week's highs around 1.2510 and 1.2550.

The Canadian dollar also fell against the US dollar on Friday's trading, despite some recovery in oil quotes at the end of the week.

The pressure on the Canadian dollar had weak data on sales in the manufacturing sector, which in December 2017 decreased due to a fall in sales of petroleum products and coal.

According to a report of the National Bureau of Statistics of Canada, sales in the manufacturing sector in December fell by 0.3% compared to the previous month and amounted to 55.52 billion Canadian dollars. Economists had expected sales growth of 0.3%.

The speech of the Minister of Finance of Canada at the end of last week did not affect the exchange rate of the national currency, despite the statement that the state of the Canadian economy is estimated as good. Bill Morneau also drew attention to the need to study the question of how tax cuts in the US will affect Canada.

Jakub Novak,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
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