4-hour timeframe

Technical data:

The senior channel of linear regression: direction - sideways.

The younger channel of linear regression: the direction is up.

Moving average (20; flattened) - sideways.

CCI: -220.0679

The EUR / USD currency pair for the entire past trading day was trading between the +1/8 Murray level and the MA. Even after it became known about the increase in the key rate of the Fed and after the optimistic statements by the representatives of the Fed on the state of the economy, the unemployment rate, and the labor market, the pair did not show any strong movements. As we expected, the tightening of monetary policy did not become something unexpected for traders, so there was no special reaction. Only today at night on the Asian trading session, the buying of the dollar began. The Europeans also did not have time to respond to the outcome of the Fed meeting, so with the opening of European markets, a new strengthening of the US dollar is possible. In general, it is unlikely that it will be protracted. As we have said, the topic of the trade war between Washington and Beijing is now concerned with the markets much more than the next rate increase. Thus, the US currency, to the delight of Trump, is now under pressure due to negative expectations of the consequences of the trade conflict. The winner in this situation is only Trump. The economy shows steady growth so far, customs duties have been introduced against Chinese imports designed to equalize the trade balance with Beijing, and the dollar has recently fallen.

Nearest support levels:

S1 = 1.1719

S2 = 1.1658

S3 - 1,1597

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 = 1.1780

R2 - 1.1841

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair on the current bar can overcome the moving. If this happens, then short positions with the target of 1.1658 will become relevant, and the trend direction will change to downward.

If the pair fails to overcome the moving average line, the upward trend will continue and it will be possible to open new lines (after the current correction is completed) with the goal of Murray level "+1/8" - 1.1780, which has already been worked out several times.

In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression is the blue lines of unidirectional motion.

The lowest linear regression channel is the violet lines of unidirectional motion.

CCI - the blue line in the indicator window.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - the blue line on the price chart.

Levels of Murray - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that color bars in blue or purple.