Over the past trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed an extremely low volatility of 68 points, as a result of having a clear horizontal movement. From the point of view of technical analysis, we have a clear accumulation of 1.3020 / 1.3000, after the quote reached the value of 1.3000. This kind of slowdown has pulled traders to the fence ***, but at the same time, gives them attractive future positions. Meanwhile, the news and news background had quite diverse statistics on Europe, the States, and Britain, which reflects the current stagnation on the graph. In turn, statements by Jean-Claude Juncker regarding a recent meeting with the British Prime Minister appeared in the informational background. Juncker didn't rule out that the "hard Brexit" would eventually happen, and assessed the situation in more sombre tones.
The upcoming trading week in terms of the economic calendar begins with a lull. The upcoming trading week in terms of the economic calendar begins with a lull. But, we have a large body of statistics from the United States since Tuesday.
Listed below are the selected most significant events. Additionally, do not forget about the background information, which spontaneously takes off on the market.
Tuesday
United States 16:30 MSK - Number of building permits issued (December): Prev. 1,322M ---> Forecast of 1,280M
United States 16:30 MSK - Prev. 1,322M ---> Forecast of 1,280M
United States 18:00 MSK - Speech by Fed Chairman Powell
Wednesday
United States 16:15 MSK - Change in the number of people employed in the non-farm sector from ADP (Feb.): Prev. 213K
United States 16:30 MSK - Basic orders for durable goods (m / m) (Feb): Prev. -0.4% ---> Forecast 0.3%
United States 18:00 MSK - The Index of Pending Sales (m / m) (January)
Thursday
United Kingdom 10:00 MSK. - Nationwide house price index (y / y) (Feb)
United States 16:30 MSK - GDP (q / q) (Q4): Prev. 3.4% ---> Forecast 2.4%
Friday
United Kingdom 12:30 MSK - Manufacturing Business Index (PMI) (Feb): Prev. 52,8
United Kingdom 12:30 MSK - M4 monetary unit (m / m) (Jan): Prev. 0.4%
United States 18:00 MSK - Manufacturing PMI from ISM (Feb): Prev. 56.6 ---> Forecast 56.2
These are preliminary and subject to change.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see price fluctuations inside the 1.3020 / 1.3100 cluster, which is developing at the current time at the lower limit. It is likely to assume that this kind of stagnation will lead to a subsequent impulse move, and many traders are focused on it, being on the fence ** now. With this logic, traders are now carefully analyzing the boundaries of the cluster on the subject of breakdown and regard possible pending orders.
Based on the available data, it is possible to expand a number of variations. Let's consider them:
- We consider buying positions in the case of price fixing higher than 1.3115, with the prospect of a move to 1.3200.
- We consider selling positions in the case of price fixing lower than 1.3000, with a prospect of 1.2950 (the first point).
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF ), we see that there was a downward interest in the short term. But due to the fact that the price is still in the bump phase, the indicators of indicators for smaller TF change. However, intraday and mid-term prospects both retain an upward interest against the background of the market.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(February 22 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 23 points. In the event of a breakthrough of a particular cluster boundary, we will see a sharp surge in volatility.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1,3200 *; 1.3300; 1.3440 **; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
*** We are out of the market
