4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 59p - 112p - 45p - 63p - 72p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 70p (77p).

on Monday, June 27, the British pound sterling also fell against the US currency, as the index of business activity in the UK dropped compared with May from 49.4 to 48.0. Such a serious decline could not go unnoticed by traders. Recently, the drop in macroeconomic indicators in the United States is not only lazy, but at the same time, we would like to note that business activity in the industrial sector both in the UK and in the EU has decreased in June and is under the critical 50.0. While the same indicator is above 50.0 in the US, and this month it has improved. Thus, the disappointing statistics of June could be just a banal accident, of short duration. In any case, as new macroeconomic information comes from overseas, we will find confirmation or refutation of this hypothesis. If our assumption is correct, then the US dollar may return to the usual course of growth for itself in recent years against European currencies. The situation with the pound sterling is also specific due to the non-concluding Brexit. It is very difficult for the pound to show growth even in the face of weakness in US statistics, as the markets simply don't want to risk due to complete uncertainty about the future of the UK. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson does not do a single day without a new interview. Today, July 1, Johnson told the press that there is a whole mass of opportunities to reduce the negative effects of the "hard" Brexit, hinting that you should not be afraid of this option. He also said that he does not think that the UK will leave the EU without an agreement, again hinting at new negotiations with Brussels.

Trading recommendations:

The pound/dollar currency pair has started a downward movement, but has not yet been able to overcome the Senkou Span B line. Overcoming this line will make it possible for traders to trade for a fall in order to support the level of 1.2591.

It will be possible to buy the British currency when the pair has consolidated above the Kijun-sen line. In this case, the upward trend may resume with the first target level of 1.2765.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.