4-hour timeframe

The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 43p - 34p - 42p - 90p - 47p.

Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 51p (55p).

The technical picture of the environment for July 3 was confusing due to the completely ambiguous macroeconomic statistics from the European Union and the United States. The composite index of business activity and the index for the EU services sector exceeded the expectations of traders and amounted to 53.6 and 52.2, respectively. Thus, the trend of failed business activity in the manufacturing sector has not been preserved. In the United States, Markit indexes came out, which also turned out to be higher than the forecast, but at the same time disappointed the more important index of business activity for the ISM services sector, which was 55.1, while the forecast was at 56.1. The ADP report was also disappointing since there was a change in the number of workers in the US private sector. With a forecast of +140,000, the real figure proclaimed a gain of only +102,000. So it turns out that the news did not support the US dollar, but did not give traders any reason to buy the euro either. Thus, traders were in thought all day today, volatility was low, and the trend within the day was sideways. The main question, of course, is the strength of the bears, the question of their desire to continue selling the euro and buying the dollar. From our point of view, the downward movement in the euro/dollar pair will be an absolutely logical continuation, unless the macroeconomic statistics from the United States fail from time to time. If it is at least neutral, then, based on the apparent bias towards the states of the monetary policies of the countries issuing the analyzed currencies, the US dollar will continue to strengthen, much to the regret of Donald Trump. Trade wars do not particularly affect the US currency, mainly the US stock markets, so even the escalation of the conflict with China will not help return the pair to the upward direction.

Trading recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair, we can say, continues the correction, as the downward movement was not observed today. Thus, it is recommended to expect it and re-sell the euro with targets of 1,1270 and 1,1246.

It is recommended to buy the euro/dollar pair not earlier than when the price consolidates above the Kijun-sen line. However, this will require a strong fundamental basis for the bulls.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen - the red line.

Kijun-sen - the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD Indicator:

Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.