4-hour timeframe

Technical data:

The upper linear regression channel: direction – down.

The lower linear regression channel: direction – down.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – sideways.

CCI: 40.3843

On Thursday, July 11, the pound/dollar currency pair adjusted to the moving average line against the background of Jerome Powell's weak speech in Congress the day before. However, if the euro was able to change the trend to an upward one, then so far, everything looks like normal correction for the pound. Today will be the second speech of Powell in Congress, this time before the Banking Committee. It is unlikely that the rhetoric of the Fed Chairman will be different or he will report anything new. Thus, the mood of traders today is unlikely to change. And it is now extremely restrained bearish on the pound/dollar pair. Despite the very likely decline in the Fed's key rate, traders are in no hurry to get rid of the dollar paired with the pound. Since in the UK, as we have repeatedly written, the situation is still much worse. Accordingly, the pound may continue to fall, even with the dollar falling against other currencies. Boris Johnson, as the most likely future Prime Minister, does not rule out that the work of Parliament may be suspended. Such a move could be played in order to smoothly bring the country out of the EU for a "hard" scenario. Following the Ford, the German concern BMW closes its plant for the production of engines at Hams Hall, as in the case of Brexit "No Deal", all cars imported to the EU with engines of the specified plant will be treated as imported and will require payment of duties. Another blow to the economy of Britain.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.2512

S2 – 1.2482

S3 – 1.2451

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.2543

R2 – 1.2573

R3 – 1.2604

Trading recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair started an upward correction. Thus, traders are advised to resume sales of the pound sterling with the goals of 1.2451 and 1.2421, if traders will not be able to overcome the moving average.

Buying the pair pound/dollar will be small lots with targets at 1.2604 and 1.2634 after fixing the price above the moving average line.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanation of illustrations:

The upper linear regression channel – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower linear regression channel – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator regression window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels – multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.