26 out of 62 analysts recently surveyed by Reuters stated trade wars as the main factor in the change in the exchange rate of the US currency, the same as macro statistics in the US, seven respondents believe that the main factor is economic indicators in other countries, while three pointed to other reasons. Admittedly, most experts are on the right track.
Released on the eve of mixed data on the US labor market and business activity, as well as an unexpected change in the rhetoric of US President Donald Trump rolled the EUR/USD pair on a roller coaster.
The owner of the Oval Office said that substantial progress has been made in Washington's trade negotiations between China and the United States: dialogue between the parties is going very well. A rather unexpected statement by the US president after words about his readiness to wait until the end of 2020 before signing a comprehensive treaty.
According to Bloomberg, the United States and China are at the stage of agreeing on the question of which part of import tariffs should be rolled back, and the interim agreement will very soon lie on the table before the leaders of the two countries.
Market sentiment significantly improved amid this background, stock indices rose, and the defensive dollar, on the contrary, declined.
In addition, the greenback suffered from weaker-than-expected US employment data from ADP. The indicator increased by only 67 thousand in November with a preliminary estimate of 150 thousand. Given the close correlation of the indicator with Nonfarm Payrolls, it can be assumed that the US labor market report on Friday may turn out to be worse than expected.
At the same time, the non-manufacturing index of the Institute for Supply Management fell to 53.9 in November from 54.7 recorded in the previous month.
"This week we saw weak data on the US, which negatively affected the mood for the dollar, as they indicate a slowdown in the US economy," said Scotiabank currency strategists.
The bears in EUR/USD were saved from defeat only by the index of managers in the eurozone services sector from Markit, which fell to 51.9 points in November from the level of October at 52.2 points.
"Recent data indicate eurozone GDP growth of only 0.1% in the fourth quarter, while the manufacturing sector continues to act as the main impediment on growth. It's alarming that the region's services sector is also on its way to its weakest quarterly growth in five years," said IHS Markit chief economist Chris Williamson.
Fans of the euro are hoping for an end to the Washington-Beijing trade war and a recovery in the European economy, including through fiscal stimulus called for by the eurozone's national governments, ECB President Christine Lagarde. According to the estimates of the Center for European Policy Studies, a fiscal stimulus of at least 3-4% of GDP is needed for a steady inflation rate in the EU to reach a 2% target and also for a related increase in the ECB deposit rate from the current -0.5% to zero. It is doubtful that the eurozone will do this.
Meanwhile, the growth rate of the USD index slowed to 2% in 2019 from 4% recorded in 2018, which indicates that the greenback is losing its trump cards.
Reuters experts predict that over the next six months, the EUR/USD pair will reach 1.12, and in twelve months - 1.15.
As for short-term prospects, the bears managed to repel the first storm of resistance at 1.1115, however, while the quotes are above 1.1055, the chances of a re-attack of the bulls remain quite high.
