Hello, dear traders!
It's time to consider the AUD/USD currency pair, the technical picture of which is quite interesting. But more on that later.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), along with other leading global central banks, announced the introduction of temporary swaps in the US currency in order to increase liquidity. In addition, the RBA together with the Australian government decided to allocate about 100 billion Australian dollars to support the Australian economy.
Let's look at the technical picture for the AUD/USD currency pair, and since this tool is analyzed once a week, let's start with the corresponding timeframe.
Weekly
After falling to the level of 0.5510, the pair began to adjust from the previous fairly strong and prolonged decline. Attempts to continue to recover losses in the current five-day trading failed at the level of 0.6215, from where the pair again turned in the south direction.
In fairness, it should be noted that the results of weekly trading will be determined by data on the US labor market, which will be published at 13:30 (London time). Economists' forecasts are very pessimistic, and if the actual numbers turn out to be even worse than expected, the US currency risks falling under a wave of sales.
The current resistance is provided by the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator, above which it is still not possible to gain a foothold. However, even if the Tenkan goes up, the next resistance to the growth of AUD/USD can be provided by the Kijun line, which passes at 0.6271. In my personal opinion, only a breakdown and consolidation above Kijun will indicate further growth prospects, which at this stage is (or was) in the framework of correction.
Daily
Despite the fact that three consecutive candles closed above the daily Kijun line, strong demand for the US currency turned the quote down. At the moment of writing the review, the "Aussie" is trading slightly below the important psychological level of 0.6000, where the Tenkan line also runs.
Bulls on the pair need to close today's and weekly trades above 0.6100, and ideally above the level of 0.6215, where the maximum trading values were shown on March 31.
I am more than confident that the results of today's and weekly trading will be directly influenced by labor reports from the United States. In this regard, the pair may fall significantly or strengthen significantly. Everything will depend on specific figures for today's American statistics.
H4
And on this timeframe, the completion of the correctional rollback and the reversal of AUD/USD towards the main downward trend is visible. From the point of view of technical analysis, the main trading idea looks like selling the "Australian" currency. But I don't think we should rush to final conclusions. It is better to wait for data on the unemployment rate, the creation of new jobs in the non-agricultural sectors of the economy and the growth rate of average hourly wages in the United States. Let's see how market participants will react to the US releases and how the current week will close.
In my opinion, only then will it be possible to consider the direction of the US dollar in relation to all major competitors.
I assume two scenarios. If the COVID-19 epidemic has not yet had a strong negative impact on the American economy, the data will come out better than the forecast values. Otherwise, the US dollar will suffer significant losses across the entire spectrum of the market.
I recommend that you refrain from opening new deals today and stay out of the market. I expect that after today's data on the US labor market, next week, there will be more understanding about the future direction of all dollar pairs.
Have a nice day!
