So, the position of the dollar, despite it being excessively oversold, remains extremely weak. At the same time, it is not just about macroeconomic data, which we will say a few words about a little later. A lot still depends on how the draft stimulus for the economy will be discussed in the United States Congress and Senate. And clearly, it will not be so simple. This is indicated by the fact that yesterday there was almost no adequate information about the progress of negotiations between Republicans and Democrats. What can I say, when there is not even enough support for the proposed project to save the economy affected by the coronavirus epidemic even in the Senate, where the majority of seats belong to the Republicans. And of course, investors are cautiously waiting for today's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, as several serious statements may be made following the results.
US macroeconomic data continue to disappoint. The S&P/CaseShiller data on house prices showed a slowdown in their growth rates from 3.9% to 3.7%. And this despite the fact that growth rates were projected to accelerate to 4.1%. True, we must admit that these data have never been so significant.
S&P/CaseShiller House Price Index (United States):
The main event of the day is the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. And before that, you can pay attention to the data on the credit market in the United Kingdom, which could fuel the pound's growth. Thus, the volume of consumer lending should increase by 1.1 billion pounds. The volume of mortgage lending could grow by as much as 1.6 billion pounds. In addition, the number of approved mortgage loans is likely to increase by 33,400. So, in general, the lending market is continuously growing. And this means that economic activity is also growing, which means that the economy is gradually recovering. Which, of course, is an extremely positive factor.
Number of approved mortgages (UK):
Regarding today's Fed meeting, the question is not regarding the parameters of the monetary policy of the US central bank. They will remain unchanged. The question is completely different. The fact is that a month ago US macroeconomic statistics showed, albeit not hasty, but still confident and gradual economic recovery, but now the picture is completely different. On the face of a serious inhibition of many indicators. One gets the impression that the economy is simply marking time. And this is nothing but stagnation. So there is every reason to believe that the Fed will announce the possibility of a new quantitative easing. Not now, but in the future. And even then, if the macroeconomic dynamics continue to remain as sluggish. Considering that the United States is already pouring a lot of money into the economy, and a $1 trillion economic recovery plan is on its way, the unrestrained flooding of everything and everything with money is more like putting out a fire using gasoline. So, such measures could further undermine the dollar's position. After all, if it is necessary to endlessly pour money into the economy in order to prevent its collapse, then this speaks of its total inefficiency.
Refinancing rate (United States):
In terms of technical analysis, we can see a consistent upward movement of the price, where the quote managed to return to the area of the beginning of spring and as a result, approaches the psychological level of 1.3000 (1.2950). Initially touching the boundaries of the control level puts pressure on buyers, which leads to a pullback being formed in the market.
Relative to the dynamics, high volatility is recorded, which indicates the prevailing speculative interest in the market.
Looking at the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, you can see that the pound sterling has strengthened in price by more than 500 points since the beginning of July, which indicates overbought.
We can assume a temporary fluctuation within the value of 1.2900/1.12950, where, depending on the price taking points, the further actions of speculators will be clear.
We will specify all of the above into trading signals:
- Short positions are considered lower than 1.2900, with the prospect of a move to 1.2770, which will be considered as a corrective movement.
- Long positions, we consider higher than 1.2955, with the prospect of a move to 1.3000/1.3050.
From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments at minute intervals signal a sale due to a significant pullback. Hourly and daily intervals signal a purchase due to the rapid upward movement of the price.
