At the trading on August 17-21, the main currencies traded mixed against the US dollar - some showed strengthening, others declined. As for the single European currency, it fell by 0.42%.
Market participants still react rather sluggishly to macroeconomic statistics, and sometimes there is no reaction at all. Investors attach much more importance to the speeches of the heads of the world's leading central banks and to the measures that are declared and are already being taken for the speedy economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic. Although, in my opinion, it is too early to talk about COVID-19 as a passing stage. According to forecasts of the same World Health Organization (WHO), it will take about two years to fight the coronavirus epidemic. A disappointing and rather pessimistic forecast. Of course, everyone would like all this to end quickly, but this is the reality. The number of COVID-19 infections worldwide continues to increase, with the lion's share of daily infections occurring in the United States of America.
A tense situation with the daily increase in infected people is also observed in Europe. The summer vacation period increases the places where people gather and significantly reduces compliance with the necessary security measures. As a result, one thousand people were infected with COVID-19 in Italy during the day, and the dynamics of coronavirus infections in Germany is also going up.
Weekly
Before proceeding to the description of the weekly timeframe, I note that the main event of this week will be the speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the economic symposium in Jackson Hole. As expected, the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve will focus on monetary policy in the medium and long term.
Well, on the weekly chart, a reversal model of candle analysis appeared, and this candle was formed after an unsuccessful attempt to break through the strong resistance of sellers at 1.1915. This factor increases the chances of the market working out a reversal model, which means that the pair is likely to show a downward trend. If this happens, the key support at 1.1700 will be tested, and a true breakdown of this level will indicate a bear market for EUR/USD. The situation for euro bulls is quite complicated. to return the upward potential and further move in the north direction, it is necessary to absorb the growth of the last weekly candle and close trading above its highs of 1.1965. Given that the support near 1.1700 is extremely strong, the solution of the tasks for the opposing sides is very difficult.
Daily
The bearish divergence of the MACD indicator remains relevant on the daily chart. It strengthens the bearish sentiment for the pair and closes Friday's trading below the important and significant 1.1800 mark. However, at the end of the article, the euro/dollar is trading near 1.1811. If the pair continues to strengthen, it may rise to 1.1838, where it will meet the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator. In my opinion, much will depend on the ability of the euro bulls to break through the Tenkan. If successful, the quote will go to the resistance at 1.1881. If you fail to break through the Tenkan, the pair will fall to support at 1.1754, the breakdown of which will open the way to 1.1700.
Conclusion and trading recommendations for EUR/USD:
After the weekly reversal candle appears, there are significant prerequisites for further decline of the pair. This means that you need to prepare for sales. I recommend considering opening short positions on attempts to gain a foothold above 1.1800, from the price zone of 1.1825-1.1840. The confirmation signal for opening sales will be the appearance of bearish candle signals in the selected zone on the four-hour and hourly charts.
