EUR/USD – 1H.
On October 8, the EUR/USD pair performed a new fall to the ascending trend line and a new reversal in favor of the European currency and a slight increase above the corrective level of 38.2% (1.1765). Thus, the mood of traders remains "bullish". Meanwhile, all the most interesting things in the world are happening now almost at one point. This point is the White House. At least, all the most interesting things for the euro/dollar pair. First, the preparation of both candidates for the elections continues. There have already been TV debates between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, and then between Mike Pence (Vice President) and Camilla Harris (Biden's Deputy). According to observers, the Democrats won both times. However, according to Trump, the Republicans won both times. Secondly, Donald Trump himself got sick with the coronavirus. According to various sources, from 11 to 34 more White House employees were infected. Trump did not want to stay in the hospital for treatment and it can be understood – the election is only 3 weeks away. According to most media, the chances of Trump not being re-elected are low and have become even lower with his illness, since it was the president who did not take the virus seriously from the very beginning. Also, according to many, it was Trump who caused so many diseases and deaths in America. Thus, it is now necessary to monitor the events directly taking place in the presidential administration.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On a 4-hour chart, the graphic picture remains very boring. The pair's quotes have returned to the side corridor and are trading inside it. Yesterday, a rebound was made from the lower border of this corridor, which allows us to count on some growth of the pair in the direction of the upper border of the corridor. However, all the movement remains so sideways that I do not rule out a new fall to the lower border of the corridor.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a sharp reversal in favor of the EU currency and began the process of returning to the weak level of 261.8% (1.1825). However, a drop in prices still looks more likely. However, the key now is the side corridor on the 4-hour chart.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has consolidated above the "narrowing triangle", which now allows us to count on further growth of the euro currency, which may be strong, but in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On October 8, there was no interesting news or economic report in the European Union. In America, there were good data on unemployment – the number of initial applications was 840 thousand, and repeated – less than 11 million.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
On October 9, there will be no news at all in the European Union and America. Thus, the influence of the information background on traders today will be virtually absent. The only exception is news from the US presidential administration.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The last COT report was quite boring. During the reporting week, the "Non-commercial" category of traders got rid of both long and short contracts. With approximately equal amounts. Thus, the mood of speculators remained the same. In general, all categories of traders also closed approximately the same number of long and short contracts. Thus, there were really few changes during the reporting week. In general, major traders still have about 5 times more long contracts than short. This means that speculators still believe that the European currency will continue to grow. But how long will their faith last?
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend selling the euro currency with targets of 1.1707 and 1.1612, if the close is made under the trend line on the hourly chart. Buying the pair today is advisable with a target of 1.1812 since a new rebound was made from this trend line yesterday.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
